Africa: Conclusion

The report concludes that Africa's current development trajectory is insufficient to meet Agenda 2063 and SDG goals, with 19.1% of the population projected to remain in extreme poverty by 2043. It argues that a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms—including the full implementation of the AfCFTA, improved governance, and an accelerated energy transition—could lift GDP to nearly US$9 trillion and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9% by 2043. Key recommendations include doubling or tripling annual energy buildout through renewables and regional power pools, and prioritizing industrialization in agro-processing and mineral beneficiation.

• Under the 'Current Path' scenario, Africa's population is expected to grow from 1.5 billion in 2024 to 2.3 billion by 2043, with GDP (MER) reaching US$6.36 trillion and GDP per capita hitting US$6,210. Despite this growth, 19.1% of the population would still live in extreme poverty (under US$2.15/day).
• A 'Combined scenario' involving coordinated reforms across eight sectors—trade (AfCFTA), governance, agriculture, education, manufacturing, financial flows, infrastructure, and health—could significantly improve outcomes by 2043, increasing GDP to nearly US$9 trillion, raising GDP per capita to approximately US$8,040, and lowering extreme poverty to 10.9%.
• Trade integration via the AfCFTA and institutional strengthening through better governance are identified as the most transformative drivers for expanding markets and reducing poverty.
• To support industrial growth and a low-carbon model, Africa needs to accelerate its energy transition by doubling or tripling its annual energy buildout, focusing on renewables, off-grid/mini-grid solutions, and regional power pools such as the ASEM.
• Africa is positioned to lead in green industrialization due to having the world's largest concentration of solar potential and a fast-growing workforce, while currently contributing less than 3% of global CO2 emissions.

APA

Ngundu, M., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous, and Jakkie Cilliers. Africa: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Africa: Conclusion |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026africa, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa: Conclusion}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }