Africa: Conclusion

The report concludes that while Africa's baseline trajectory shows steady growth, it is insufficient to meet Agenda 2063 and SDG goals. By 2043, a 'Current Path' would see a population of 2.3 billion with 19.1% in extreme poverty. However, a coordinated approach involving AfCFTA trade integration, governance reforms, and a tripled energy buildout could raise GDP to nearly US$9 trillion and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%.

• Under a 'Current Path' scenario, Africa's population is projected to grow from 1.5 billion in 2024 to 2.3 billion by 2043. While GDP (MER) is expected to reach US$6.36 trillion and GDP per capita US$6,210 by 2043, 19.1% of the population would remain in extreme poverty, defined as living under US$2.15 per day.
• Coordinated reforms across eight sectors—trade (via AfCFTA), governance, agriculture, education, manufacturing, financial flows, large infrastructure, and health/demographics—could significantly improve outcomes by 2043. This 'Combined scenario' could lift GDP to nearly US$9 trillion, increase GDP per capita to approximately US$8,040, reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%, and raise life expectancy to over 75 years.
• Trade integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and institutional strengthening via better governance are identified as the most transformative drivers for expanding markets and reducing poverty. These are supported by education, manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and digital leapfrogging.
• To achieve a low-carbon growth model and underpin industrial growth, Africa needs to accelerate its energy transition by doubling or tripling its annual energy buildout. This involves scaling renewables, mini-grid and off-grid solutions, and utilizing regional power pools such as the ASEM to reach universal access.

APA

Ngundu, M., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous, and Jakkie Cilliers. Africa: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Africa: Conclusion |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026africa, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa: Conclusion}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AFRICA&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }