Impact of the Agriculture Scenario

This report analyzes the projected impacts of a specific 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it against a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario envisions a significant increase in agricultural production, reduced food import dependence, and substantial poverty reduction, though it notes that these gains depend on technological adoption and climate factors.

• Under the Agriculture scenario, Africa's agricultural production is projected to more than double over the next two decades, reaching approximately 2,167 million metric tons by 2043. This represents an increase of 486 million metric tons of food (including crops, meat, and fish) compared to the Current Path forecast for the same year.
• The Agriculture scenario is expected to significantly improve Africa's trade balance by 2043, reducing the agricultural import bill by US$212 billion and increasing export earnings to US$276 billion, up from US$48.4 billion in the Current Path forecast.
• The scenario aims to mitigate food import dependence, which is projected to reach 30.4% by 2043 under the Current Path. The Agriculture scenario could instead limit this dependence to 10.6%, close to the 10.2% level recorded in 2019.
• The Agriculture scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty (benchmarked at US$1.90) from 34% in 2019 to 27% by 2030, and further to 15% (339 million people) by 2043, compared to 18% (398 million people) in the Current Path forecast.
• Economic gains vary by region by 2043; the total African economy would be US$354 billion larger under the Agriculture scenario than the Current Path. West Africa is expected to see the highest proportional benefit with a 5% increase in GDP per capita, while North Africa would benefit the least with a 1.2% increase.
• Nigeria is projected to become Africa's most significant agricultural producer by 2043, potentially increasing production from 311 million metric tons (Current Path) to 438 million metric tons under the Agriculture scenario.
• While total output increases, the Agriculture scenario accelerates the decline of the agricultural sector's share of the labor force. However, it is expected to create new employment opportunities in downstream agro-processing, particularly in urban centers.
• The realization of these gains is contingent upon several variables, including the availability of irrigation water, the effects of climate change-induced carbon fertilisation on crops, and the development of temperature-tolerant genetically modified plants and cultivars.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of the Agriculture Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Impact of the Agriculture Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Impact of the Agriculture Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026impact, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of the Agriculture Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }