Impact of the Agriculture Scenario

The Agriculture scenario projects a significant increase in Africa's agricultural production, reducing food import dependence and extreme poverty while boosting GDP. By 2043, production could reach 2,167 million metric tons, with Nigeria emerging as the most significant producer. The scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans to 339 million and increase the total economy by US$354 billion compared to the Current Path. However, these gains depend on water availability, climate-driven carbon fertilisation, and the adoption of temperature-tolerant cultivars.

• Under the Agriculture scenario, Africa's agricultural production is projected to more than double over the next two decades, reaching approximately 2,167 million metric tons by 2043. This represents an additional 486 million metric tons of food compared to the Current Path forecast for the same year.
• The Agriculture scenario significantly improves food security and health outcomes by 2043, reducing the number of malnourished children by over 1.7 million and decreasing infant mortality by nearly a million child deaths per 1,000 live births relative to the Current Path.
• The scenario reduces Africa's food import dependence to 10.6% by 2043, compared to a projected 30.4% under the Current Path. This shift could reduce the agricultural import bill by US$212 billion and increase export earnings to US$276 billion by 2043.
• Nigeria is projected to become Africa's most significant agricultural producer by 2043, with production potentially increasing from 311 million metric tons (Current Path) to 438 million metric tons under the Agriculture scenario.
• The Agriculture scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans (using a US$1.90 benchmark) to 339 million (15%) by 2043, compared to 398 million (18%) in the Current Path. The greatest poverty reductions are expected in Malawi, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone.
• By 2043, the Agriculture scenario would make Africa's total economy US$354 billion larger than the Current Path forecast, increasing average GDP per person (PPP) by US$204. West Africa is projected to benefit most proportionally with a 5% increase over the Current Path.
• While total output increases, the scenario accelerates the decline of the agricultural sector's share of the labour force, shifting employment toward downstream agro-processing in urban centres.
• The projected gains are contingent on several variables, including water availability for irrigation, the impact of climate-driven carbon fertilisation on crops, and the development of temperature-tolerant genetically modified plants and cultivars.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of the Agriculture Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Impact of the Agriculture Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Impact of the Agriculture Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026impact, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of the Agriculture Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=10-impact-of-the-agriculture-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }