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Global Shock, Local Pain: What the Strait of Hormuz Disruption Means for Food Security in Nigeria
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser supply shock that threatens Nigerian food security by increasing agricultural production costs and food prices. Despite record domestic urea production in 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable due to the export of most urea and a continued reliance on imported blending materials from Russia, Morocco, and China. These external shocks compound existing internal strains, including regional insecurity and infrastructure gaps, disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers who cannot absorb rising costs. The document argues for a pivot toward emergency procurement, improved trade finance, and expanded domestic blending capacity to build long-term resilience.
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Document type: Briefing
Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers
The report highlights the economic disparity for African producers of raw commodities like cocoa and cashew nuts, who export most products without value addition. It details regional agricultural growth forecasts and warns of a widening gap between crop production and demand, which is expected to increase food imports and vulnerability to international price fluctuations by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
Impact of the Agriculture Scenario
The Agriculture scenario projects a significant increase in Africa's agricultural production, reducing food import dependence and extreme poverty while boosting GDP. By 2043, production could reach 2,167 million metric tons, with Nigeria emerging as the most significant producer. The scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans to 339 million and increase the total economy by US$354 billion compared to the Current Path. However, these gains depend on water availability, climate-driven carbon fertilisation, and the adoption of temperature-tolerant cultivars.
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Document type: Report
Zimbabwe: A disastrous experiment
The research paper examines the failure of Zimbabwe's land redistribution programme and 'command agriculture' policies, noting that these actions destroyed the country's most productive sector. It highlights a transition from being a net food exporter before 1990 to importing nearly 22% of total food demand by 2019, while extreme poverty rose from 10% in 2000 to 37% in 2020.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers
Analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics indicates that consecutive climate extremes in the UK—including the 2022 drought, the 2023/2024 wet winter, and the 2025 drought—have repeatedly driven up farmgate lamb prices. The 2023/2024 wet winter had the most significant impact, increasing prices by an estimated 25%. For the 2.6 million UK households that regularly purchase lamb, these events added up to GBP 168 to their grocery bills. The report highlights a 'climate premium' on traditional Easter lamb roasts since 2023, with price increases ranging from 7% to 21%. The findings suggest that while biological grass systems show some recovery, the market buffer of hay stocks has been progressively depleted, increasing the sensitivity of prices to new climate shocks.
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Document type: Briefing
Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander
The study assesses the vulnerability of the Boyacá-Santander region to climate change, projecting temperature increases between 1.3°C and 2.4°C by 2040-2070. It identifies significant risks to surface and groundwater availability, particularly in the northeast, and uses econometric modeling to project negative impacts on agricultural production, municipal value added, and social indicators such as multidimensional poverty and education. The authors recommend diversifying climate finance, improving intersectoral coordination, and implementing specific hydrogeological interventions like artificial aquifer recharge in the Middle Magdalena Valley.
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Document type: Research paper
Strengthening Community Resilience to the Adverse Effects of Climate Change with an Emphasis on Food Security and Gender Considerations in Priority Areas of Ecuador - FORECCSA+
The gender assessment for the FORECCSA+ project in Ecuador reveals deep-seated structural inequalities and patriarchal norms that limit rural women's access to land, credit, and decision-making power. Despite a progressive national legal framework, including the 2023 Violet Economy Law, rural women continue to face a double burden of productive and unpaid care work, with significant gaps in land ownership and technical training. Survey data indicates that approximately 20-25% of men surveyed hold sexist attitudes that normalize the subordination of women and certain forms of gender-based violence. The report identifies these gaps as strategic opportunities for the project to implement gender-transformative adaptation measures, focusing on the empowerment of rural women and youth to enhance community resilience and food security.
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Document type: Report
Network companies: another way of thinking agriculture: a supply chain management vision in South America
The document examines the emergence of network companies and "Pools de siembra" in South America, which separate the planning and commercialization of agricultural commodities from the actual field production by outsourcing to contractors. It notes that while these farming companies are a point of concern, their actual contribution to agricultural production remains unquantified because they are not defined as a distinct statistical group.
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Document type: Research paper
Impacto de los eventos de sequía en la región de la cuenca hidrográfica de la laguna Sauce Grande provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina
The study examines water extremes in the Sauce Grande lagoon watershed from 1971 to 2010, finding that while 49% of cases were mild or incipient droughts, extreme events caused a 19% decrease in grain yields. Severe and extreme droughts occurred most frequently during summer months, with the 2008-2009 period significantly impacting regional agricultural and livestock production.
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Document type: Research paper
Agriculture Production Background Paper (Crop and Livestock)
The report outlines the development of updated eligibility criteria for agriculture production (crop and livestock) under the Climate Bonds Standard. It establishes a science-based framework for transition finance, focusing on absolute intensity pathways to reach net-zero by 2050. The document details mitigation strategies, including the reduction of methane and nitrous oxide and the enhancement of carbon sequestration, while introducing safeguards for adaptation, biodiversity, water, and animal welfare.
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Document type: Report
side-by-side-farm-bill-2024-rural-energy-for-america-program-reap-7c6db0abec37234e.pdf
The document compares current law with the House version of the Rural Energy for America Program (REAP), highlighting proposed changes to grant selection criteria, loan guarantee limits, and discretionary funding. It notes that the Senate version is pending. REAP provides financial assistance to agricultural producers and rural small businesses for renewable energy systems and energy efficiency upgrades.
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Document type: Briefing
TRANSITION IN ACTION
The report examines the role of sustainable debt in transitioning the agri-food sector to net-zero, highlighting the need for finance to reach smallholder farmers. It introduces new Climate Bonds Sector Criteria for Agriculture Production and Deforestation and Conversion Free (DCF) Sourcing to standardize green activities. The analysis reveals that while sovereign issuers dominate the AFOLU sustainable debt market, there is a critical need for more material KPIs beyond scope 3 GHG emissions and greater transparency in the loan market to scale impactful investments.
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Document type: Report
The Global Subnational Agricultural Production (GSAP) database
The Global Subnational Agricultural Production (GSAP) database is the first standardized global dataset providing subnational agricultural production data (2010–21) for the world's 50 most relevant crops. By collecting data from national agricultural censuses and surveys at the district, province, or region level, GSAP fills a critical information gap left by national-level data sources like FAOSTAT. The database currently covers 185 countries and approximately 15,000 subnational jurisdictions, capturing a significant portion of global production for staples such as soybean (92%), maize and sugarcane (85%), and wheat and rice (75%). The project aims to enhance the accuracy of analyses regarding yield gaps, climate adaptation, and supply chain sustainability, with future goals including the launch of a public online platform and the expansion of data to include livestock and forestry.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Avancement du cadre d’assainissement « Village propre et productif » (VPP) pour améliorer la santé et la production agricole
The 'Clean and Productive Village' (VPP) framework aims to advance rural sanitation beyond the elimination of open defecation by integrating risk management (the 'Clean' pillar) and resource recovery (the 'Productive' pillar). In Burkina Faso, the framework focuses on the safe reuse of human excreta, animal waste, organic waste, ash, and greywater to enhance soil fertility and crop yields. Pilot implementations in three villages demonstrated high community interest in recycling nutrients, though perceptions of risk vary between human and animal waste. The report details participatory tools for diagnosis and capacity building, a monitoring system based on specific indicators, and emphasizes the necessity of collaborating with the agricultural sector to ensure the safe and effective application of recovered nutrients.
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Document type: Report
The case for adapting to extreme heat
The June 2021 heat wave in British Columbia was the deadliest disaster in the province's history, resulting in 619 direct heat-related deaths. The report estimates the societal cost of these lives lost at $5.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) metric. Beyond mortality, the event caused $12 million in healthcare costs, significant agricultural revenue losses (at least $25 million), and disruptions to electricity and transportation infrastructure. Vulnerabilities were exacerbated by a lack of mechanical cooling in homes, inadequate urban greening, and institutional failures in disaster response and communication. The report argues that without adaptation, heat-related hospitalizations could double by 2030 and annual deaths could average 1,370 by 2030. Key recommendations include updating building codes for mechanical cooling, increasing urban forest canopies, improving weather warning lead times to three days, and implementing independent public reviews of disaster responses.
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Document type: Report
Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of River Restoration in Greece
The report evaluates three flood risk reduction scenarios in Thessaly, Greece: nature-based infrastructure (NBI), hybrid infrastructure, and grey infrastructure. Using the SAVi methodology, it finds that NBI—consisting of riparian forest and floodplain restoration—offers the highest benefit-to-cost ratio (2.9) over 25 years. Notably, the carbon storage value of NBI (EUR 12.8 million) exceeds the total implementation costs for both NBI (EUR 6.8 million) and hybrid options (EUR 9.3 million).
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Document type: Report
Clean and Green framework: Burkina Faso insights
The Clean and Green framework, piloted in Burkina Faso with WaterAid and Eau Vive International, aims to improve rural health and agricultural sustainability by managing a broad range of waste-related risks and recycling nutrients and water from household and community waste flows.
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Document type: Briefing
RURAL ENERGY FOR AMERICA PROGRAM (REAP)
The Rural Energy for America Program (REAP) provides grants and loan guarantees to agricultural producers and rural small businesses for renewable energy systems and energy efficiency improvements. Funded through the 2018 Farm Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, the program supports technologies such as solar, wind, and biomass, and implements a tiered application process based on project cost.
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Document type: Briefing
Why an EU framework for sustainable food is crucial for climate, biodiversity and competitiveness
The document advocates for the EU to introduce the Sustainable Food System legislative framework (SFSF) in 2023 as a cornerstone of the EU Green Deal. It argues that the SFSF is essential for strengthening food system resilience against climate shocks, reducing dependence on imported animal feed and fossil-based fertilisers, and establishing high environmental and health standards that provide a competitive advantage for EU agrifood players in global markets. The authors contend that without a joined-up strategy for food consumption and production, the EU will struggle to meet its climate, biodiversity, and zero pollution goals, as well as its international commitments regarding embedded carbon and deforestation.
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Document type: Statement
Por que un marco comunitario para la alimentacin sostenible es crucial para el clima, la biodiversidad y la competitividad
The document advocates for the immediate proposal of the Sustainable Food Systems Legislative Framework (SFSF) to ensure the EU's long-term food security, climate resilience, and global competitiveness. It argues that the SFSF is essential for transitioning from a net importer to a net exporter of calories by reducing reliance on fossil-fuel fertilizers and imported feed. The authors contend that the EU can maintain global leadership and competitiveness by shifting focus from production volumes to value creation based on high environmental, health, and animal welfare standards. Furthermore, the SFSF is presented as a necessary tool to ensure internal and external coherence across EU goals regarding climate, biodiversity, and deforestation, particularly concerning embedded carbon in food imports.
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Document type: Statement