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Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander
The study assesses the vulnerability of the Boyacá-Santander region to climate change, projecting temperature increases between 1.3°C and 2.4°C by 2040-2070. It identifies significant risks to surface and groundwater availability, particularly in the northeast, and uses econometric modeling to project negative impacts on agricultural production, municipal value added, and social indicators such as multidimensional poverty and education. The authors recommend diversifying climate finance, improving intersectoral coordination, and implementing specific hydrogeological interventions like artificial aquifer recharge in the Middle Magdalena Valley.
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Document type: Research paper
Incorporating Just Transition strategies in developing country NDCs and post COVID responses: Colombia
Colombia has committed to reducing GHG emissions by 51% by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. While the government has developed a robust legal framework for climate mitigation and adaptation, the report finds a critical gap in Just Transition planning. Massive layoffs are already occurring in the thermal coal sector due to falling international prices and the shift toward renewables, yet the government has not implemented specific policy responses to support affected workers. Similarly, conservation efforts in the AFOLU sector, particularly the expansion of protected areas and páramo ecosystems, threaten the livelihoods of informal rural workers and ethnic communities. The report concludes that Colombia's Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system lacks the capacity to track social welfare and employment impacts, and recommends urgent, regionally differentiated strategies for economic diversification and worker retraining.
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Document type: Report
Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia
The document analyzes the economic dependence of Colombia and its producing regions on coal, highlighting the vulnerability of public finances to declining international demand and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the General Royalty System (SGR) and projects that despite recent legal reforms to increase direct allocations to producing regions, the downward trend in coal production will lead to significant losses in royalty revenues for departments like Cesar and La Guajira by 2030.
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Document type: Policy brief
ÍNDICE DEL TRILEMA ENERGÉTICO Colombia 2020
The report evaluates Colombia's departmental energy performance using a trilemma framework. It finds that while regions like Antioquia and Boyacá excel in energy security due to hydroelectric and thermal resources, significant gaps persist in energy equity between the National Interconnected System (SIN) and Non-Interconnected Zones (ZNI). Environmental sustainability is hindered by a reliance on fossil fuels, particularly gas and coal in departments like Atlántico and La Guajira, while non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER) remain underutilized.
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Document type: Report
ESTUDIO TÉCNICO PARA EL APOYO DE LOS PLANES DE ADAPTACIÓN AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE LOS SECTORES VIVIENDA, AGUA Y SANEAMIENTO BÁSICO E INDUSTRIA
The report details the technical and financial structuring of climate change adaptation plans for three Colombian sectors: Water and Basic Sanitation, Manufacturing Industry, and Housing, City and Territory. It establishes adaptation goals, indicators, and portfolios of measures for each, while providing estimated costs for prioritized actions. The process highlights a strong reliance on existing Disaster Risk Management (DRD) frameworks and a significant need for knowledge management and technical capacity building across all sectors.
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Document type: Report
How Colombia can plan for a future without coal
The document assesses Colombia's vulnerability as the world's fourth largest thermal coal exporter facing declining global demand. It highlights significant risks to regional GDP and employment in the Cesar and La Guajira departments, where coal is a dominant economic driver. The brief notes a lack of domestic planning for post-coal scenarios and evaluates alternatives such as agriculture and tourism, while recommending coordinated long-term planning involving national institutions like the DNP and UPME to ensure a just transition.
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Document type: Policy brief
SEI y la gestión participativa del agua: referentes para procesos participativos de acueductos comunitarios
The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) provides a suite of participatory tools and analytical frameworks to improve water resource management in Latin America, with a focus on Colombia. Key examples include the use of 'Serious Games' to help stakeholders understand and plan Watershed Management and Ordering Plans (POMCA) in Campoalegre, and the application of a multidimensional poverty analysis to evaluate water access and human security. The document also highlights the Regional Water Assessment (ERA) in Colombia and advocates for the role of community journalists in raising awareness about water care and sanitation needs.
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Document type: Guide
Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia
The policy brief analyzes the vulnerability of Paipa's economy to the energy transition, noting that nearly one-third of its production and employment depends on coal. It uses an input-output model to demonstrate that the cessation of coal-fired power generation could contract the municipal economy by 78.6%. To counter this, the report recommends diversifying into tourism, traditional manufactures (such as Paipa cheese), and high-value agriculture (potatoes and blackberries), suggesting that a 2.3% annual growth increase in these sectors between 2026 and 2035 could offset the losses from the coal industry.
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Document type: Policy brief
ABC de la Ley 2099 de 2021
The document provides a detailed analysis of Law 2099 of 2021, which aims to modernize Colombia's energy transition. It examines the expansion of public utility declarations for renewable energy projects, the modification of tax incentives to include hydrogen and geothermal energy, and the consolidation of energy funds into FONENERGÍA. The report highlights significant risks, including the promotion of 'blue hydrogen' from fossil fuels, the potential for environmental degradation due to streamlined licensing, and the risk of displacing populations lacking formal land titles. It also discusses the specific challenges of geothermal development in páramo ecosystems and the government's continued reliance on combustible gas as a transition bridge.
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Document type: Report
Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia
The document uses a departmental input-output model to project that Colombia could lose up to 448,000 jobs by 2035 due to decreased coal, oil, and gas production. It highlights a significant disparity in impact: 'Vulnerable' departments (Arauca, Casanare, Cesar, La Guajira, and Meta) face severe production drops (32%-38%) and job losses that cannot be offset by renewable energy projects alone. While 'Large Economies' and 'Limited Affectation' departments also face job losses due to interdepartmental linkages, they possess higher potential for compensation through structural changes in agro-industry and nature tourism. The brief argues that a 'just transition' requires a structural economic shift, specifically proposing the creation of food manufacturing clusters and local-content requirements for renewable energy imports to maximize domestic employment.
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Document type: Policy brief