Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia

The document uses a departmental input-output model to project that Colombia could lose up to 448,000 jobs by 2035 due to decreased coal, oil, and gas production. It highlights a significant disparity in impact: 'Vulnerable' departments (Arauca, Casanare, Cesar, La Guajira, and Meta) face severe production drops (32%-38%) and job losses that cannot be offset by renewable energy projects alone. While 'Large Economies' and 'Limited Affectation' departments also face job losses due to interdepartmental linkages, they possess higher potential for compensation through structural changes in agro-industry and nature tourism. The brief argues that a 'just transition' requires a structural economic shift, specifically proposing the creation of food manufacturing clusters and local-content requirements for renewable energy imports to maximize domestic employment.

• By 2035, Colombia could lose up to 448,000 jobs nationally due to reduced production of coal, oil, and gas, with 79% of these being indirect jobs because the extractive sectors are capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive. Total national production is projected to decrease by up to 5.2% compared to 2022 levels.
• Vulnerable departments—Arauca, Casanare, Cesar, La Guajira, and Meta—face the most severe impacts, with production expected to fall between 32% and 38% and job losses estimated between 114,000 and 141,000 by 2035. Over 80% of these lost jobs would be in sectors other than extraction, primarily in the services sector.
• Renewable energy projects (FNCER) provide insufficient compensation for job losses in vulnerable regions. While wind projects in La Guajira could create 15,000 jobs and solar projects in Cesar and Meta up to 5,000, these are temporary construction-phase roles. Furthermore, high import rates (70% for wind, 85% for solar) limit local employment opportunities.
• Large economies (Bogotá, Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, Santander, and Cundinamarca) experience significant job losses (121,000 to 142,000) despite low direct dependence on mining, due to strong interdepartmental productive linkages. However, a structural shift toward agro-industry could generate 834,000 jobs in these regions, overcompensating for the losses.
• Departments with 'Limited Affectation' (including Atlántico, Bolívar, and others) are projected to lose between 130,000 and 163,000 jobs by 2035. Nature tourism and agro-industry are identified as the primary compensation mechanisms, with the potential to create 775,000 jobs, particularly in Córdoba, Atlántico, Nariño, Caldas, Magdalena, and Bolívar.
• Non-Interconnected Zones (ZNI), such as Amazonas and Chocó, are the least affected due to low fossil fuel production and limited interdepartmental links, with projected job losses of only 600 to 700. Agro-industrial structural changes could generate 8,000 jobs here, sufficient to offset the losses.
• To achieve a just transition, the document recommends implementing 'minimum content' policies for imports used in energy transition projects to encourage local manufacturing of steel, aluminum, plastics, and fiberglass for solar panels and wind turbines.

APA

Ramírez, F., Saavedra, P., & Castro, K. (n.d.). Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Transicion_economica_justa-2.pdf

Chicago

Ramírez, Fabián, Paola Saavedra, and Karem Castro. Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Transicion_economica_justa-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ramírez |first1=Fabián |last2=Saavedra |first2=Paola |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Transicion_economica_justa-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ramrezndpolicy, author = {Ramírez, Fabián and Saavedra, Paola and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Policy Brief: ¿Será justa la transición económica en el marco de la transición energética? Resultados a partir de un modelo insumo producto departamental para Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Transicion_economica_justa-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }