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This report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute in March 2024, provides a comprehensive long-term energy planning framework for Colombia from 2022 to 2052. It outlines the evolution of National Energy Plans (PEN), analyzes the current public policy landscape, and models five distinct energy scenarios: Actualización, Modernización, Inflexión, Innovación, and Transición Energética. The document details the technical and economic assumptions for energy demand and supply across the residential, tertiary, industrial, and transport sectors, while evaluating the role of strategic minerals and the cost-benefit ratios of various energy efficiency and substitution measures.

This policy brief analyzes the fiscal implications of the gradual phase-out of coal production in Colombia, focusing on the role of royalties and the economic vulnerability of producing regions like Cesar and La Guajira. It examines production trends, international trade dynamics, and the impact of the General Royalties System (SGR) reform, concluding that current policy measures are insufficient to offset the projected decline in coal demand and revenue.

The report analyzes Colombia's Law 2099 of 2021, which promotes energy transition by expanding tax incentives and 'public utility' declarations for non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER), including geothermal and hydrogen. It highlights the creation of the FONENERGIA fund and the strategic role of combustible gas, while warning of risks such as reduced environmental rigor, potential land conflicts in paramo ecosystems, and the fiscal cost of expanded tax exemptions.