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This report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute in March 2024, provides a comprehensive long-term energy planning framework for Colombia from 2022 to 2052. It outlines the evolution of National Energy Plans (PEN), analyzes the current public policy landscape, and models five distinct energy scenarios: Actualización, Modernización, Inflexión, Innovación, and Transición Energética. The document details the technical and economic assumptions for energy demand and supply across the residential, tertiary, industrial, and transport sectors, while evaluating the role of strategic minerals and the cost-benefit ratios of various energy efficiency and substitution measures.

This discussion brief examines the political economy of large-scale coal production in Colombia, analyzing the conflict between entrenched industry interests and growing social, environmental, and legal opposition. It details how the coal sector, once a pillar of national development, now faces challenges from declining global demand, judicial activism by the Constitutional Court, and local resistance, forcing companies to shift their public relations and political strategies.

The report analyzes Colombia's Law 2099 of 2021, which promotes energy transition by expanding tax incentives and 'public utility' declarations for non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER), including geothermal and hydrogen. It highlights the creation of the FONENERGIA fund and the strategic role of combustible gas, while warning of risks such as reduced environmental rigor, potential land conflicts in paramo ecosystems, and the fiscal cost of expanded tax exemptions.