Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander

The study assesses the vulnerability of the Boyacá-Santander region to climate change, projecting temperature increases between 1.3°C and 2.4°C by 2040-2070. It identifies significant risks to surface and groundwater availability, particularly in the northeast, and uses econometric modeling to project negative impacts on agricultural production, municipal value added, and social indicators such as multidimensional poverty and education. The authors recommend diversifying climate finance, improving intersectoral coordination, and implementing specific hydrogeological interventions like artificial aquifer recharge in the Middle Magdalena Valley.

• Climate projections for the 2040-2070 period indicate a regional temperature increase ranging from 1.3°C in the optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) to 2.4°C in the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). Precipitation changes are more uncertain, with projections ranging from a 1% increase to a 4.7% decrease, with the eastern zone facing the most adverse conditions.
• Water availability is highly variable across the region, with 19.5% of basins currently showing high or very high vulnerability to shortages, primarily in the northeast. Future scenarios suggest a polarization where the number of basins with 'very high' vulnerability increases from 2 to 9.
• Surface water supply is projected to decrease generally, with severe reductions of up to 45.8% in the basins of the Chicamocha, Suárez, Fonce, and Opón rivers under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Groundwater recharge potential shows significant spatial variation; while some areas like Betulia, Girón, and Lebrija may see increases, the Middle Magdalena Valley (Barrancabermeja and Puerto Wilches) and the center-western sector (Encino) are projected to experience reductions in recharge.
• Econometric analysis indicates that while temperature increases might have mixed effects, changes in precipitation patterns could lead to significant economic losses: a 7% drop in general agricultural production, 15% reductions in cassava crops and bovine livestock, and a 15% decrease in Municipal Value Added.
• Climate-driven economic shifts are projected to cause severe social consequences, including a 3.9% increase in multidimensional poverty, an 11% drop in basic and middle school enrollment, and a 19% contraction in university enrollment.
• Existing departmental climate plans in Boyacá and Santander are hindered by insufficient financing mechanisms, weak monitoring and evaluation systems, and limited intersectoral coordination.

APA

Sanabria, C., Zamora, D., López, D., Aedo, S., Leal, J., Figueroa, A., García, C., Garay, C., & Santos, T. (2025). Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/100226a-ortiz-sanabria-climatico-boyaca-y-santander-2511e.pdf

Chicago

Sanabria, Camilo, David Zamora, Diego López, Sebastián Aedo, Jesús Leal, Albeiro Figueroa, Camila García, César Garay, and Tania Santos. Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2025. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/100226a-ortiz-sanabria-climatico-boyaca-y-santander-2511e.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{sanabria2025cambio, author = {Sanabria, Camilo and Zamora, David and López, Diego and Aedo, Sebastián and Leal, Jesús and Figueroa, Albeiro and García, Camila and Garay, César and Santos, Tania}, title = {{Cambio climático en Boyacá y Santander}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/100226a-ortiz-sanabria-climatico-boyaca-y-santander-2511e.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }