Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia

The policy brief analyzes the vulnerability of Paipa's economy to the energy transition, noting that nearly one-third of its production and employment depends on coal. It uses an input-output model to demonstrate that the cessation of coal-fired power generation could contract the municipal economy by 78.6%. To counter this, the report recommends diversifying into tourism, traditional manufactures (such as Paipa cheese), and high-value agriculture (potatoes and blackberries), suggesting that a 2.3% annual growth increase in these sectors between 2026 and 2035 could offset the losses from the coal industry.

• Paipa's economy is highly dependent on coal and coal-fired electricity, with nearly one-third of its production and employment linked directly or indirectly to these activities.
• The electric sector is the primary driver of Paipa's local economy due to its high backward linkages, largely because it demands nearly half of the coal mined within the municipality.
• A progressive reduction in coal mining could lead to a decline in Paipa's total production of between 7.5% and 12% by 2035, with a potential loss of up to 780 jobs in that sector.
• The most critical economic risk is the cessation of coal-fired power generation, which would cause a contraction of approximately 78.6% of the municipal economy, equivalent to 1.2 trillion pesos.
• Tourism, traditional manufactures, and agriculture are identified as the primary sectors for economic diversification. Specifically, tourism is a strong opportunity as Paipa is the most visited municipality in Boyacá (except for 2023).
• Traditional food manufactures, specifically Paipa cheese (which has a protected designation of origin since 2011) and 'amasijos', act as key tourist attractions and have potential for national market expansion.
• The agricultural sector shows potential in potato and blackberry production, with approximately 6,000 hectares in Paipa optimal for 'diacol' potatoes used in industrial frying.
• If tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors increase their annual growth by 2.3% above historical levels between 2026 and 2035, they could replace the total production and overcompensate for the jobs lost from coal and coal-fired power.

APA

Ramírez, F., Saavedra, P., & Castro, K. (n.d.). Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/260331-Analisis-Paipa-2.pdf

Chicago

Ramírez, Fabián, Paola Saavedra, and Karem Castro. Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/260331-Analisis-Paipa-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ramírez |first1=Fabián |last2=Saavedra |first2=Paola |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/260331-Analisis-Paipa-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ramrezndespecial, author = {Ramírez, Fabián and Saavedra, Paola and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/260331-Analisis-Paipa-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }