Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia

The document analyzes the economic dependence of Colombia and its producing regions on coal, highlighting the vulnerability of public finances to declining international demand and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the General Royalty System (SGR) and projects that despite recent legal reforms to increase direct allocations to producing regions, the downward trend in coal production will lead to significant losses in royalty revenues for departments like Cesar and La Guajira by 2030.

• Coal production is highly concentrated geographically, with the Cesar and La Guajira regions producing 61% and 31% of Colombia's coal respectively in 2019. In these regions, the mining sector's contribution to the regional GDP was nearly 36% for Cesar and 42% for La Guajira in 2019.
• Coal royalties are a critical component of mining revenues, representing 89% of all mining royalties and 11% of total royalties (including oil and gas) as a percentage of national GDP in 2019 (0.2%).
• International trade trends, including climate mitigation policies and the COVID-19 pandemic, have reduced demand for Colombian coal. Export values fell by 22% by the end of the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year, primarily due to a 30.8% drop in commodity prices.
• The 2020 reform of the General Royalty System (SGR) via Law 2056 aims to prioritize regional investment over savings, increasing direct allocations to producing regions from 11.2% to 25%. However, the document argues this policy is insufficient to offset the projected decline in coal revenues.
• Under the 'Transforma' scenario, which accounts for the long-term impact of the pandemic and financial instability of coal companies, national coal royalty revenues are projected to decrease to approximately one-third of their 2019 levels by 2030, falling from 1.9 trillion pesos to 0.6 trillion pesos.
• Regional fiscal impacts vary: Cesar's SGR allocations are expected to decline by around 35% from a 2023 peak to 2029, though partially buffered by oil royalties. La Guajira's royalty revenues are projected to be on average 38% lower than previous distributions for the 2021-2028 period.

APA

Barcha, J. U., Walker, F. B., Limas, A. P., Puerto, L., Sanmiguel, V., & Restrepo, G. P. (2021). Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf

Chicago

Barcha, Juan Uribe, Felipe Bonilla Walker, Andrea Perez Limas, Lina Puerto, Valentina Sanmiguel, and Giovanni Pabón Restrepo. Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia. Transforma, 2021. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Barcha |first1=Juan Uribe |last2=Walker |first2=Felipe Bonilla |last3=Limas |first3=Andrea Perez |last4=Puerto |first4=Lina |last5=Sanmiguel |first5=Valentina |last6=Restrepo |first6=Giovanni Pabón |title=Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |date=2021 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{barcha2021impactos, author = {Barcha, Juan Uribe and Walker, Felipe Bonilla and Limas, Andrea Perez and Puerto, Lina and Sanmiguel, Valentina and Restrepo, Giovanni Pabón}, title = {{Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2021}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }