Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia

This policy brief analyzes the fiscal implications of the gradual phase-out of coal production in Colombia, focusing on the role of royalties and the economic vulnerability of producing regions like Cesar and La Guajira. It examines production trends, international trade dynamics, and the impact of the General Royalties System (SGR) reform, concluding that current policy measures are insufficient to offset the projected decline in coal demand and revenue.

• Coal production in Colombia has shown a declining trend, with an average annual production of 84.3 million tonnes (Mt) over the last 10 years. In 2019, production fell to 82.4 Mt, and it was estimated to drop by approximately 27% by the end of 2020. Regional production is highly concentrated, with Cesar and La Guajira accounting for 61% and 31% of production in 2019, respectively.
• Coal has a significant but declining impact on Colombia's national economy and exports. In 2019, coal production represented approximately 1.1% of the national GDP. Between 2010 and 2020, coal's average share of Colombia's export value was 14.6%, though this is subject to volatility in commodity prices and international demand.
• The coal sector is a primary driver of mining royalties in Colombia. In 2019, coal accounted for 89% of all mining royalties and 11% of total royalties (including oil and gas). Between 2016 and 2019, coal extraction generated 7.27 trillion pesos (2.46 billion dollars) in royalties, though these revenues decreased by 14% in 2019.
• Producing regions are extremely dependent on the mining sector; in 2019, mining represented 36% of the regional GDP in Cesar and 42% in La Guajira. The document warns that the decline in coal demand and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a drastic reduction in royalty income for these regions, which the SGR reforms cannot fully compensate.
• Under the 'Transforma' scenario, which assumes the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and financial instability of coal companies, coal royalty revenues are projected to decrease to approximately one-third of their 2019 levels by 2030, falling from 1.9 trillion pesos to 0.6 trillion pesos.

APA

Barcha, J. U., Walker, F. B., Limas, A. P., Puerto, L., Sanmiguel, V., & Restrepo, G. P. (2021). Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf

Chicago

Barcha, Juan Uribe, Felipe Bonilla Walker, Andrea Perez Limas, Lina Puerto, Valentina Sanmiguel, and Giovanni Pabón Restrepo. Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia. Transforma, 2021. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Barcha |first1=Juan Uribe |last2=Walker |first2=Felipe Bonilla |last3=Limas |first3=Andrea Perez |last4=Puerto |first4=Lina |last5=Sanmiguel |first5=Valentina |last6=Restrepo |first6=Giovanni Pabón |title=Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |date=2021 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{barcha2021impactos, author = {Barcha, Juan Uribe and Walker, Felipe Bonilla and Limas, Andrea Perez and Puerto, Lina and Sanmiguel, Valentina and Restrepo, Giovanni Pabón}, title = {{Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2021}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }