Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers

Analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics indicates that consecutive climate extremes in the UK—including the 2022 drought, the 2023/2024 wet winter, and the 2025 drought—have repeatedly driven up farmgate lamb prices. The 2023/2024 wet winter had the most significant impact, increasing prices by an estimated 25%. For the 2.6 million UK households that regularly purchase lamb, these events added up to GBP 168 to their grocery bills. The report highlights a 'climate premium' on traditional Easter lamb roasts since 2023, with price increases ranging from 7% to 21%. The findings suggest that while biological grass systems show some recovery, the market buffer of hay stocks has been progressively depleted, increasing the sensitivity of prices to new climate shocks.

• The UK experienced three consecutive seasonal climate extremes between 2022 and 2025: a summer drought in 2022, an unusually wet winter-autumn storm season in 2023/2024, and the warmest spring and summer on record in 2025.
• Farmgate lamb prices in Great Britain rose significantly following each extreme weather event: the 2022 drought increased prices by approximately 11%, the 2023/2024 wet winter by about 25%, and the 2025 drought by an additional 13%.
• Climate extremes have had a substantial financial impact on the 2.6 million UK households that regularly buy lamb (averaging 24.3 kg per year), adding a cumulative estimated GBP 168 to their grocery bills across the three events.
• Traditional 2 kg Easter lamb roasting joints have carried a 'climate premium' every year since 2023, with additional costs of GBP 1.8 (6.5%) in 2023, GBP 5 (17.5%) in 2024, GBP 6.8 (21%) in 2025, and a projected GBP 4 (13.2%) for 2026.
• The resilience of the UK hay market has been eroded by successive climate shocks, with hay prices in 2025 running approximately 20% higher than current climate conditions alone would predict due to the depletion of carryover buffer stocks.
• Climate-driven production costs and supply constraints are contributing to broader food inflation in the UK; beef and veal were identified as two of six food products most strongly driving UK food inflation since 2020.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2026). Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=3 April 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2026climate, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }