Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers

A briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics detailing how consecutive seasonal climate extremes in the UK between 2022 and 2025—including droughts and a wet winter—have increased farmgate lamb prices and consumer grocery bills.

• The UK experienced a series of consecutive climate extremes from 2022 to 2025, consisting of a summer drought in 2022, an unusually wet winter-autumn storm season in 2023/2024, and the warmest spring and summer on record in 2025.
• Climate extremes have repeatedly driven up farmgate lamb prices in Great Britain. The 2022 drought increased prices by approximately 11%, the 2023/2024 wet winter caused a more sustained increase of around 25%, and the 2025 drought added an estimated 13% further increase.
• For the 2.6 million UK households that regularly purchase lamb (averaging 24.3 kg per year), these climate events added a cumulative estimated GBP 168 to their grocery bills. Occasional buyers saw an increase of almost GBP 13.
• Traditional Easter lamb roast joints (2 kg) have carried a 'climate premium' every year since 2023. Costs increased by 6.5% (GBP 1.8) due to the 2022 drought, 17.5% (GBP 5) at Easter 2024, 21% (GBP 6.8) at Easter 2025, and are projected to be 13.2% (GBP 4) higher at Easter 2026.
• Successive climate shocks have depleted the resilience of the UK hay market. By 2025, hay prices were approximately 20% higher than what current climate conditions alone would predict, suggesting that carryover buffer stocks have been eroded.
• Climate-driven production impacts are contributing to broader food inflation in the UK. Beef and veal were identified as two of six food products most strongly driving UK food inflation since 2020, with average price increases for these six items around 15.6% year-on-year.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2026). Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=3 April 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2026climate, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/climate-extremes-in-the-uk-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }