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Analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics indicates that consecutive climate extremes in the UK—including the 2022 drought, the 2023/2024 wet winter, and the 2025 drought—have repeatedly driven up farmgate lamb prices. The 2023/2024 wet winter had the most significant impact, increasing prices by an estimated 25%. For the 2.6 million UK households that regularly purchase lamb, these events added up to GBP 168 to their grocery bills. The report highlights a 'climate premium' on traditional Easter lamb roasts since 2023, with price increases ranging from 7% to 21%. The findings suggest that while biological grass systems show some recovery, the market buffer of hay stocks has been progressively depleted, increasing the sensitivity of prices to new climate shocks.

The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.

The report evaluates the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) as an economic development tool. Using the Energy Policy Simulator, Energy Innovation estimates that the fund's $24 billion in financial assistance will generate 36,000 to 41,000 annual jobs, $21.3 to $23.9 billion in wages (2025-2031), and $52 billion in consumer energy savings over 20 years. The GGRF operates through national-scale 'Green Banks' via the National Clean Investment Fund and local-level initiatives like the Solar For All and Clean Communities Investment Accelerator programs to mobilize private capital and support disadvantaged communities.

The research establishes a method to quantify the impact of tropical deforestation on hydropower capacity. Using the Teles Pires plant in Brazil as a case study, the author analyzes the value of restoring deforested Amazon regions and the potential costs associated with deforesting Indigenous Territories, demonstrating the critical link between forest preservation and energy sector stability.

The document examines the gap between soybean production and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change exacerbates risks through extreme events. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers demonstrate that while insurance data is scarce in regions like the North and Northeast, agricultural yield data can effectively identify climate variables—primarily precipitation, fire risk, and wind—that drive production losses. The brief argues for expanding insurance to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA and improving the solvency of insurers through reinsurance and public-private funds to support a low-carbon agricultural transition.

The research employs a Fixed Effect design to analyze how mining royalties per capita correlate with socioeconomic indicators (health, education, employment, and income) and homicide rates, as well as municipal fiscal spending. While simple correlations suggest mining royalties improve socioeconomic outcomes and increase violence, the application of municipality and year fixed effects removes the statistical significance for economic outcomes and reveals a negative correlation with homicide rates. In terms of fiscal impact, an increase of R$ 1 in mining royalties is associated with a corresponding R$ 1 increase in total expenditures, primarily affecting public sector wages and pensions, followed by health and education. The study also notes that mining royalties are not associated with increased urban property tax (IPTU) revenue, suggesting a potential reduction in fiscal effort by benefited municipalities.

The report analyzes four federal transport projects in Pará: Ferrogrão, BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230. Using a 'market access approach,' the authors quantify the risk of deforestation and the associated costs of mitigation. The findings highlight a systemic lack of transparency in project documentation and a significant environmental risk, with the four projects potentially endangering nearly 7,000 square kilometers of native Amazon vegetation. The study argues that the state of Pará should engage with the Federal Government to incorporate deforestation control funding into project designs.

The research paper calculates fiscal multipliers for South Africa using a closed input-output model based on 2018 data. It finds that the average income multiplier is 1.68 and the employment multiplier is 6.9, suggesting that public spending has a significant positive impact on GDP and job creation. The authors argue that the South African government's 2020 Budget, which proposes spending reductions of approximately R48 billion, will likely reduce GDP by R81 billion and destroy approximately 330,000 jobs due to these high multipliers and the existing negative output gap.

The policy brief estimates that the construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railway will induce the deforestation of 2,043 square kilometers of native vegetation in Mato Grosso if no mitigation measures are implemented. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tonnes of carbon, representing an environmental cost of approximately US$ 1.9 billion, which is about 60% of the project's estimated implementation cost of US$ 3.1 billion. The analysis uses a 'market access' approach to show how improved logistics for grain producers will increase demand for land, specifically affecting 38 municipalities.

The document evaluates the environmental risks of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad, estimating that without mitigation, the project will induce 2,043 square kilometers of deforestation in Mato Grosso. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tons of carbon, creating an environmental cost of approximately US$1.9 billion, which represents about 60% of the railroad's estimated US$3.1 billion implementation cost.

The research analyzes the relationship between satellite-based law enforcement (DETER) and the growth of secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004 to 2014. It finds that increased enforcement in a cell's neighborhood significantly increases the probability and area of forest regeneration, supporting a 'deterrence channel' where illegal land use is abandoned. The study suggests that improving monitoring systems to detect secondary vegetation could further increase forest cover.

The report examines the adoption of no-till farming, tractors, and fertilizers in Brazil from 2006 to 2017. It finds that while no-till farming has become more spatially decentralized, tractor use has become more concentrated in wealthy, urbanized regions, and fertilizer use has increased without a clear spatial pattern.

The research finds that demand-side factors are the primary drivers of distributed solar PV adoption in Brazil, often outweighing the availability of solar resources. Analysis shows that municipalities with higher GDP, larger populations, and higher electricity tariffs have more PV units, while solar radiation only becomes a significant positive predictor when comparing municipalities within the same electricity distributor's concession area. The authors argue that current subsidy policies in the Northeast region artificially lower tariffs, hindering PV growth in areas with the highest solar potential. They conclude that climate mitigation policies must address demand-side frictions and tariff structures rather than focusing solely on natural resource availability.

A study by NAPC/CPI found that rural settlements were responsible for 30% of deforestation in the Amazon region in 2014. Notably, Environmentally Differentiated Settlement Projects (PAADs), designed for sustainable production, accounted for 15% of total Amazon deforestation, representing half of the impact caused by all rural settlements.

The research finds that the blacklisting of priority municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon significantly reduced deforestation, avoiding the clearing of approximately 11,218 to 11,396 km2 of forest from 2008 to 2011. The authors conclude that this effect was primarily driven by intensified monitoring and law enforcement—specifically an increase in the number of fines—rather than economic sanctions. The study demonstrates that the policy had no significant negative impact on agricultural GDP, crop production, or rural credit concessions, suggesting that forest protection in the region does not necessarily constrain agricultural production.

The report identifies systemic waste in global land use, highlighting beef production as the most inefficient sector in terms of land, biomass, and emissions. It argues that the 'nutrition transition' toward animal products is a primary driver of land demand rather than population growth. Through GTAP modeling, the authors demonstrate that shifting diets from beef to chicken could significantly reduce pastureland and cropland needs, freeing land for reforestation and sustainable bioenergy. The report recommends carbon pricing on land-based products, holistic land use planning, and a move away from inflexible biofuel mandates to achieve a more climate-friendly and less wasteful planet.

The study examines how the duration of supply disruptions and the season of occurrence affect the economic valuation of gas reliability among households in three European countries. It finds that WTP varies significantly by country and is generally higher for winter disruptions, with Italian households showing the highest valuation.

The 2007–08 international food crisis had a modest impact on Tanzania compared to other poor countries, with an estimated 0.5–1% of the population driven into poverty, primarily in urban areas. While short-term government interventions like export bans and tariff reductions showed limited evidence of effectiveness, long-term economic reforms since the early 2000s helped the country maintain agricultural exports. The study highlights a persistent challenge in stabilizing agricultural output growth and suggests that greater integration with global markets could serve as insurance against domestic production shocks.

The research finds that increased trade openness is associated with better economic rights for women and a lower incidence of forced labor, both in global and developing country samples. In contrast, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) penetration generally shows no statistically significant impact on these specific labor rights.

The study finds that energy wealth, but not mineral wealth, increases the risk of civil war onset, provided a lower threshold of 25 annual battle deaths is used. The results provide evidence against the 'looting rebels' model, which predicts a non-linear relationship where very high resource wealth eventually deters rebellion, and instead tentatively support state capacity models suggesting that fossil fuel dependence weakens state institutions.