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The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that industrial carbon pricing has a negligible effect on food prices, estimated at most at 0.1 per cent. The author explains that the policy does not apply to individuals, farmers, or transport companies, and is designed to limit costs for large industrial emitters through thresholds and carbon credits. The text identifies the actual drivers of food inflation as supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, U.S. trade policy, and climate-driven weather extremes such as droughts in Western Canada.

The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.

The 'Big Five' agricultural traders—ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO, and LDC (collectively ABCCD)—dominate the global trade of staples like grains, corn, soy, and sugar, controlling 70% to 90% of the commercial grain trade. During the 2021-2022 food price surge, these companies saw net profits increase by 200% to 300% compared to the 2016-2020 average. The author contends that this was achieved through strategic market consolidation, vertical integration, and inter-company cooperation, often facilitated by the EU's restrictive competition policy, which focuses primarily on immediate consumer prices rather than cumulative social harm. The document highlights the recent approval of the $34 billion Bunge-Viterra merger as evidence of regulatory failure and advocates for a transition toward an economy based on degrowth and decarbonization to dismantle the incentives for market concentration.

Between October 1 and 6, 2024, over 120 million people in Japan experienced unusual heat that was made at least 3 times more likely by human-caused climate change. At least 74 cities recorded temperatures of 30°C or higher, with conditions 5°C to 8°C above the 1991-2020 average. The analysis uses the Climate Shift Index (CSI), noting that 259 cities reached CSI level 3, while some cities like Kusatsu, Toyota, and Miyazaki reached CSI level 5, indicating an exceptional climate change event. The document also notes broader impacts of extreme heat in Japan, including a record 252 deaths in Tokyo from a summer heat wave, reduced agricultural output for vegetables, dairy, and fish, and delayed peak fall foliage in northern and eastern regions.

The 'Big Five' agricultural commodity traders—ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO, and LDC—dominate the global trade of staples like grains and oilseeds, controlling 70-90% of the commercial grain market. The author contends that these companies used the 2021-2022 food price spikes, driven partly by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to dramatically increase net profit margins, with profits in 2022 being 200-300% higher than the 2016-2020 average. This dominance is maintained through strategies of market consolidation (M&As), vertical integration across the value chain, and interconnectedness via joint ventures. The document criticizes EU competition regulators for a narrow focus on immediate consumer prices, which has led to the approval of nearly all M&A cases involving the Big Five, including the recent 34-billion-dollar Bunge-Viterra deal. The author concludes that while stronger anti-trust enforcement is necessary, a systemic shift toward degrowth and decolonization is required to dismantle the incentives for such concentration.

The document analyzes the foreign policy of Nigeria under President Buhari, highlighting a lack of coherence between domestic goals and regional aspirations. Key issues discussed include the 2019 land border closures, which aimed to curb smuggling but increased food inflation and harmed regional trade; the delayed ratification of the AfCFTA due to domestic productivity concerns; and the decline of the oil sector caused by insecurity and poor governance, which deterred foreign direct investment. It also evaluates the role of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM) in managing relations with Nigerians abroad amidst increasing economic migration.

The document identifies a substantial increase in protests in the Global South after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by food and energy insecurity. Analyzing ACLED data, the authors found food protests in 32 countries and fuel protests in 37 countries. While many protests are isolated, in some nations—such as Paraguay, Guatemala, and Peru—these grievances constituted a significant portion of all unrest events. The report argues that such protests serve as warnings of household hardship and can lead to severe political consequences, citing the flight of Sri Lanka's president as an example.

The research argues that while food insecurity provides the motivation for urban unrest, the actual occurrence of collective action is contingent on the presence of organizational networks and the level of state repression. Using a combination of cross-national data from urban Africa (1990–2014) and individual-level survey data from Johannesburg, the author finds that food insecurity increases the likelihood of unrest, particularly demonstrations and strikes. However, the study challenges the notion that food is a uniquely potent driver of unrest compared to other living expenses and finds no evidence that food insecurity leads specifically to more violent behavior.

The study examines how fragmented climate policies, where some regions implement carbon taxes while others do not, lead to 'carbon leakage'—the relocation of emissions to non-participating regions. It distinguishes between industrial carbon leakage (ICL), driven by fossil fuel price changes, and terrestrial carbon leakage (TCL), driven by land-use changes. The findings indicate that TCL is the dominant form of leakage until 2050, primarily due to deforestation in non-participating regions as food and bioenergy production shift away from participating areas. The research concludes that the total leakage rate decreases as the size of the climate coalition increases, but even the most inclusive fragmented scenarios fail to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C by 2100.

A coalition of organizations expresses support for the Corn Ethanol Mandate Elimination Act of 2013, arguing that the federal mandate to blend up to 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol into gasoline annually is economically damaging and environmentally harmful.

The document examines how Latin American governments responded to the 2007-2008 food crisis through social protection policies, new legislation, and a focus on food security and sovereignty. It finds that responses were largely uniform across countries, often prioritizing short-term price reductions and trade barriers over long-term agricultural investment and regional cooperation. The report argues for a balanced approach combining macroeconomic stability, targeted social programs, and supply-side agricultural stimulus to address persistent high food prices.

The report analyzes the Zambian livestock sector, noting that rising prices are driven by fuel costs, imported feed inputs, climate change, and economic pressures. It highlights a divide between a thriving poultry sector and a struggling beef sector plagued by disease and poor infrastructure. The document argues that while liberalization was intended to modernize the sector, it lacked the necessary socioeconomic safety nets and technical support, leaving small-scale farmers vulnerable. It recommends strengthening research, improving irrigation, and expanding government disease control to stabilize prices and enhance food security.

The document examines how Mozambique's reliance on food imports and historical underinvestment in agriculture have made it vulnerable to global price spikes, particularly for rice and wheat. It details the transition from state-supported agriculture to neoliberal structural adjustment programmes in the 1990s, which led to a decline in the use of fertilizers and pesticides. To counter current food insecurity, the government has introduced the 'Green Revolution' strategy and the 2008–11 Food Production Action Plan (FPAP), increasing the agricultural budget to 10% of the state budget and reducing import tariffs on staples from 25% to 2.5%. The author argues that long-term success depends on improving infrastructure, resolving land tenure conflicts, and attracting private sector investment.

The document outlines a character profile for 'Ishmael', a 35-year-old university-educated grain trader in Kul-Bayne. As a persona for a simulation, Ishmael is described as IT-savvy and financially stable, though he notes that drought has led to increasing prices for food and bottled water. The persona is prompted to consider business opportunities arising from the drought and the possibility of his family joining a volunteer network to support residents during the crisis, while maintaining a social distinction from manual farm labor.

The document argues that agrofuels significantly increase food prices and volatility, contributing to global hunger and poverty. It highlights how biofuel mandates, such as the European Union's 10% renewable transport fuel target, divert land and crops from food production. The report also links large-scale agrofuel production to 'land grabbing' and human rights abuses in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, recommending the elimination of biofuel subsidies in favor of energy efficiency and food sovereignty.

The document examines the link between agrofuels and rising food prices, asserting that biofuel production diverts crops from food use and increases market volatility. It highlights the resulting impact on the world's poorest populations, including increased chronic hunger and 'land grabbing' in Africa and Asia. The briefing refutes industry claims that agrofuels are benign, noting that they compete for land and water regardless of whether the crops are edible. It concludes by recommending the scrapping of agrofuel mandates, such as the EU's 10 per cent renewable transport fuel target, and the protection of community land rights to ensure food sovereignty.

The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.