Search Climate Insights Directory

An introductory report on Malawi's development trajectory, detailing its long-term vision for industrialization, current socio-economic challenges, and severe fiscal pressures exacerbated by climatic shocks and the loss of international funding.

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on Africa, detailing the frequency of climate-related disasters, the vulnerability of populations due to socio-economic factors, and the resulting threats to food security, health, and regional stability.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how Africa's health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) trajectories will impact global development, security, and economic stability. It highlights the potential for a demographic dividend if health outcomes improve, while warning that fragile health systems and climate-linked vulnerabilities could increase global pandemic risks and drive migration toward Europe and the Middle East.

The 'Climate Risk Profile: Belize' report outlines the climatic hazards facing Belize, specifically focusing on the Maya Forest Corridor, Glover's Reef Marine Reserve, and South Water Caye Marine Reserve. It emphasizes the need for nature-based solutions (NbS) that are gender-responsive and socially inclusive to mitigate threats to biodiversity, food security, and socio-economic development.

This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.

The report examines the complex interplay of governance, peace, and security in the Horn of Africa, highlighting a shift from interstate to intra-state conflict. It analyzes how structural drivers—including climate change, demographic pressures, and technological advances—interact with political instability and geopolitical competition from global and Middle Eastern powers. The document evaluates the effectiveness of multilateral bodies like IGAD, the AU, and the UN, noting their struggles to maintain relevance amidst hardening state sovereignty and institutional fragility.

This report presents the findings of a consultative study involving 52 women in Niger's Tillabéri region to analyze the gender-specific impacts of a security crisis that has claimed over 2,495 lives in the region between January 2017 and July 2022. The study highlights how insecurity exacerbates gender-based violence, increases poverty through widowhood and economic disruption, and hinders access to essential health and education services.

The September 2022 Peace & Security Council Report examines political deadlock in Sudan, the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns' initiative, the impact of natural resource management in Mozambique, and the priorities of Ghana during its PSC chairship.

This policy brief examines the drivers of violent conflict in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, arguing that the insurgency is fueled by a combination of political marginalization, grievances over the governance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) resources, and the amplifying effects of climate-related disasters.

This guide outlines the necessity of conducting social analyses when using Aqueduct Food data to ensure water and agricultural policies are socially equitable. It highlights how vulnerable groups—such as women in Malawi, pastoralists in the Sahel, and displaced communities in India—are disproportionately affected by resource management decisions. The document provides a set of guiding questions and a list of resources from organizations like the World Bank and FAO to help decision-makers identify and mitigate adverse social impacts.

This report examines the challenges of reintegrating Boko Haram deserters in the Lake Chad Basin, advocating for a shift from purely military responses to a comprehensive 'desertion, de-incentivisation, rehabilitation and reintegration' (DDRR) framework. It emphasizes the need for regional coordination, community-sensitive approaches, and the demobilization of local vigilante groups to ensure sustainable interim stabilisation.

Natural Justice submitted a series of recommendations on the Land Value Index Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2018, arguing that several proposed changes would marginalize vulnerable groups, undermine the judiciary, and conflict with the Constitution of Kenya 2010.

This factsheet from the Raising Risk Awareness initiative analyzes the 2015-16 drought in Ethiopia, noting that the event's extreme rarity and severity—influenced by El Niño—strained the capacity of existing national and international preparedness and response systems.

The June 2016 Peace & Security Council Report examines the strained relationship between the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the UN Security Council (UNSC), focusing on coordination failures, funding disputes for peacekeeping, and the AU's struggle to implement preventive diplomacy in member states like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) examines how climate change interacts with existing political tensions in the Middle East, specifically the Levant, to increase the risk of violent conflict through water scarcity, food insecurity, and economic instability.

This fact sheet by Friends of the Earth International describes the Vegetable Oil Development project (VODP) in Uganda, a partnership involving Wilmar International, the Government of Uganda, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and Bidco. While promoted as a poverty-reduction effort, the document asserts the project has caused land grabbing, deforestation, and food insecurity, particularly on Bugala Island in the Kalangala area.

This case study describes the 'Increasing Community Resilience to Drought in Makueni District' project in Kenya, part of the broader ACCESA regional initiative. The project implements strategies to reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate variability through improved water access, agronomic training, and income diversification, while working to integrate these lessons into national policy.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a development forecast for Lesotho extending to 2043. It outlines a 'Current Path' based on existing policies and compares it against 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economics, poverty, health, and energy, highlighting Lesotho's heavy economic dependence on South Africa and its vulnerability to food insecurity and political instability.

This research paper by the World Resources Institute examines the relationship between water security and global security threats, including conflict, migration, and food insecurity. It identifies the drivers of water risk, classifies the pathways through which these risks manifest, and proposes a variety of multifaceted strategies to mitigate these threats.