La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa

Severe flooding in Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe since late December 2025 has caused over 200 deaths and widespread destruction. Researchers found that while the event had a return period of about 50 years, it would have been much rarer in a climate 1.3°C colder, and that extreme rainfall spells in the region have become approximately 40% more intense. A weak La Niña phase further increased the likelihood of such extreme 10-day precipitation by a factor of about 5 and increased intensity by about 22%. The document highlights that high social vulnerability, poor infrastructure, and compound hazards—such as previous droughts—exacerbated the humanitarian impact, particularly for marginalized groups and those with chronic health conditions.

• Severe flooding since late December 2025 in Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe resulted in more than 200 deaths and the destruction of over 173,000 acres of crops. In Mozambique specifically, the floods affected over 75,000 people, destroyed more than 70,000 homes, and disrupted approximately 5,000 km of roads, including the N1 national highway.
• Human-induced climate change has increased the intensity of extreme rainfall spells in the region by approximately 40%. While the recent event had a return period of about 50 years in the current climate (which has warmed by 1.3°C), it would have been significantly rarer in a climate that was 1.3°C colder.
• A weak La Niña phase during the December–February season increased the likelihood of extreme 10-day precipitation by a factor of about 5 and increased its intensity by about 22%. The impact of La Niña is estimated to be approximately half as significant as the effect of global warming.
• The severity of the flood impacts was compounded by deep social vulnerabilities, including poor housing quality, inadequate urban planning, and aging infrastructure. Vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and people living with HIV, faced heightened risks due to the destruction of health facilities and the interruption of essential HIV and TB treatments.
• The region is susceptible to compound hazards, where intense rainfall and flooding follow severe drought periods, reducing the capacity of communities to absorb impacts. This cycle can trigger cascading risks, including disease outbreaks, critical system collapse, and further displacement.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2026). La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-climate-change-high-exposure-and-vulnerability-combined-led-to-devastating-floods-in-parts-of-southern-africa/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa. 2026. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-climate-change-high-exposure-and-vulnerability-combined-led-to-devastating-floods-in-parts-of-southern-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa |date=29 January 2026 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-climate-change-high-exposure-and-vulnerability-combined-led-to-devastating-floods-in-parts-of-southern-africa/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2026nia, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-climate-change-high-exposure-and-vulnerability-combined-led-to-devastating-floods-in-parts-of-southern-africa/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }