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On 26 August 2026, a rock-ice avalanche at Langtang Lirung (5,150 m asl) triggered a massive debris flood that travelled 200 km into India, causing over 1,300 deaths and widespread destruction in Nepal. The event released energy equivalent to a M5.5 earthquake and moved at average speeds of 188 km/hr. While geological structure was the primary control, the report finds that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of the anomalous warmth preceding the failure. Specifically, temperatures in July and August were approximately 1.5°C higher due to climate change, contributing to permafrost degradation, glacial thinning, and a shift in the rain-snow transition. The report concludes that the magnitude and speed of the event exceeded the limits of existing early warning systems and adaptation measures, necessitating a focus on loss and damage recovery.

The report finds that human-induced climate change has reduced rainfall in Jamaica by approximately 6% and in Puerto Rico by about 9%. These changes have increased the likelihood of severe effective precipitation events in both regions compared to a pre-industrial climate. The study highlights that warmer temperatures intensify drought severity through higher evaporation, making the 2026 early wet season rainfall deficits more frequent and severe.

The report finds that record-breaking sea surface temperatures in July 2026 across European coasts were driven by human-induced climate change, with some regions experiencing warming that substantially exceeds global averages. These extreme temperatures have triggered marine heatwaves, species range shifts, and increased risks to human health and coastal infrastructure. The analysis indicates that such events would have been virtually impossible in a pre-industrial climate and will continue to intensify as global warming progresses.

The 2026 floods in Upper Assam, which affected over 500,000 people and caused at least 99 deaths, were driven by high exposure and structural vulnerability rather than climate-driven rainfall increases. Analysis shows the rainfall events had return periods of less than two years and that human-induced warming of 1.4°C did not materially alter their likelihood or intensity. The study highlights that unplanned urbanization, deforestation, and colonial land policies have increased vulnerability, while reliance on rigid embankments has proven insufficient for adaptation.

In 2026, Canada experienced a rapid escalation in wildfire activity, with over 3 million hectares burned, primarily between late June and July. The report finds that human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in the Northwest Territories and Ontario, though the degree of attribution varies by region and metric. The fires caused significant public health issues due to smoke exposure affecting over 120 million people in the U.S. and displaced remote and Indigenous communities. While short-term fire weather was linked to warming, the report found no evidence that long-term 24-month drought conditions were driven by human-induced climate change.

The report analyzes the July 2026 wildfires in France and Spain, finding that anthropogenic warming significantly increased the probability and intensity of the fire-conducive weather. In central Spain, similar conditions are now at least 20 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate, while in southwest France, they are at least twice as likely. The study highlights a 'weather whiplash' pattern where above-average winter rainfall promoted biomass growth, followed by extreme heatwaves and drought that dried fuels. The impact was exacerbated by high human exposure due to population growth in the wildland-urban interface and the presence of flammable maritime pine monocultures in France. The fires caused severe air quality degradation, with PM2.5 levels in Bordeaux exceeding 'fair' thresholds by a factor of 20, leading to the first-ever distribution of the French strategic national reserve of FFP2 masks during an ambient pollution episode.

The European summer of 2026 has been marked by exceptional heat and widespread dryness, leading to severe agricultural and hydrological impacts. Analysis shows that while precipitation trends vary by region, human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of drought by driving higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). In the western region, soil drought is estimated to be 5 times more likely than in a climate 1.4°C cooler, while in the eastern region, it is about 11 times more probable. The study highlights a compound crisis where rainfall deficits that previously would not have caused drought now do so because of shifted thresholds driven by warming.

Between 20–22 June 2026, the Gulf of Guinea coast experienced severe flooding following intense rainfall, with over 140 mm falling in less than 24 hours in some areas. The event caused significant fatalities in Côte d’Ivoire (59 since May), Ghana (at least 34), and Togo (five). An attribution study found that observed 3-day rainfall intensity in the region has increased by approximately 23% since records began, making such events about five times more likely in the current climate (1.4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels) than in a cooler climate. While climate models support the trend of increasing precipitation, they systematically underestimate the observed increase, with models showing only a 4% increase in intensity. The study highlights that rapid urbanisation, the expansion of settlements into floodplains, and sea level rise exceeding the global average have compounded flood risks. Under a future warming scenario of 2.8°C, these heavy rainfall events are expected to become common occurrences.

The report analyzes a severe heatwave in July 2026 characterized by record-shattering Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) values across the eastern US and Canada. Attribution analysis indicates that while the atmospheric circulation pattern (a 'heat dome') is characteristic of the region, the intensity of the event was substantially increased by a background climate that has warmed by 1.4°C due to fossil fuel combustion. The study emphasizes that humid heat extremes are an emerging risk, as WBGT is increasing more rapidly than absolute maximum or minimum temperatures. It also highlights the disproportionate vulnerability of low-income residents, outdoor workers, and those in historically redlined urban districts, while noting the critical role of heat action plans and cooling centers in mitigating mortality.

The June 2026 heatwave in Western Europe is the most severe ever recorded for the region, with temperatures 5–12°C above seasonal averages. Analysis shows that such an event would have been virtually impossible in 1976 and significantly rarer in 2003, indicating that extreme heat is increasing rapidly due to global warming. The event caused widespread disruption to transport, energy systems, and health services, with 45% of European cities breaking indoor Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) thresholds.

A World Weather Attribution study finds that climate change has shifted extreme heat earlier into the year in Saudi Arabia, making May temperatures in Mecca as dangerous as summer temperatures were between 1970 and 1990. The analysis indicates that peak May temperatures are now approximately 2°C hotter and average May temperatures are approximately 3.5°C higher than in a preindustrial climate. This trend increases the risk of heat stroke and exhaustion for millions of pilgrims, with projections suggesting that if global temperatures rise by 3°C, 97% of Hajj pilgrimages would occur during periods of dangerous heat.

The study finds that anthropogenic climate change approximately tripled the probability of the April 2026 heatwave in northwestern India and Pakistan, making it about 1°C hotter than it would have been in a preindustrial climate. Analysis indicates that extreme heat is occurring earlier in the season, with the likelihood and intensity of April events increasing more rapidly than those in May. This trend extends the period of dangerous heat exposure for hundreds of millions of people, compounding risks to health, agriculture, and the economy. The report also highlights systemic vulnerabilities, noting that heatwaves are not officially declared disasters in India and Pakistan, which limits access to relief funding.

The report finds that anthropogenic climate change has significantly increased the probability of dangerous humid heat during the 2026 FIFA World Cup compared to 1994. Using Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) as a metric, the analysis indicates that more games are expected to exceed the 26C and 28C thresholds recommended by FIFPRO for cooling breaks and postponement, respectively. While air-conditioned stadiums may mitigate risks for players, spectators at outdoor events remain vulnerable. The study concludes that without substantial adaptation and rapid mitigation of fossil fuel use, hosting summer tournaments in the northern hemisphere will become increasingly hazardous.

The report analyzes a record-shattering heatwave in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico in March 2026, finding that such an event would have been virtually impossible without anthropogenic climate change. Using a combination of observation-based data and climate models, the study estimates that the intensity of 1-in-100-year March heat events has increased by 2.6°C and their likelihood has increased by a factor of approximately 800. The document highlights the extreme vulnerability of non-acclimatized populations and the risk of accelerated snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Colorado mountains.

In February 2026, intense rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, caused over 70 deaths and displaced nearly 10,000 people, with Juiz de Fora being the most affected city. While climate models project a 7% increase in February rainfall with future warming, the immediate severity of the disaster was driven by high social vulnerability and unplanned urban expansion on steep slopes. Risk assessments had previously identified 130,000 residents in high-risk zones in Juiz de Fora. The study found that while early warnings were issued, topographical constraints and a lack of evacuation options hindered their effectiveness.

A study by World Weather Attribution on the impact of nine named storms in the western Mediterranean, finding that while evidence is uncertain, there is a trend toward increased intensity of extreme heavy rainfall events, particularly in northern regions, exacerbated by urban development in floodplains.

In January 2026, severe wildfires affected central-southern Chile and northern Patagonia in Argentina, driven by temperatures above 38°C, drought, and winds of 40–50 km/h. The fires destroyed at least 1,000 homes in Chile, killed 23 people, and burned over 109,000 hectares across both countries, impacting the UNESCO world heritage site Los Alerces National Park. An attribution study using the hot-dry-windy index (HDWI) found that these conditions, typically 1-in-5-year events, were made more likely by human-induced climate change by a factor of approximately 3 in Chile and 2.5 in Patagonia. Additionally, fire-season rainfall intensity decreased by about 25% in Chile and 20% in Patagonia. The study highlights that nonnative monocultural pine plantations increased flammability and that natural variability, such as La Niña and the Southern Annular Mode, further enhanced the hot and dry conditions.

Severe flooding in Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe since late December 2025 has caused over 200 deaths and widespread destruction. Researchers found that while the event had a return period of about 50 years, it would have been much rarer in a climate 1.3°C colder, and that extreme rainfall spells in the region have become approximately 40% more intense. A weak La Niña phase further increased the likelihood of such extreme 10-day precipitation by a factor of about 5 and increased intensity by about 22%. The document highlights that high social vulnerability, poor infrastructure, and compound hazards—such as previous droughts—exacerbated the humanitarian impact, particularly for marginalized groups and those with chronic health conditions.

A study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change made a January 2026 heatwave in south-eastern Australia approximately 1.6°C hotter and about 5 times more likely than in a preindustrial climate. Despite a weak La Niña phase reducing the event's severity by 0.3–0.5°C, the warming driven by climate change remained the dominant factor. The event caused a 25% increase in emergencies in Melbourne and created dangerous fire weather in Victoria and New South Wales comparable to the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. The report also notes that abundant renewable generation, with solar providing over 60% of midday electricity, helped meet record demand more smoothly than in previous heatwaves.

The report analyzes 22 extreme weather events in 2025, noting that despite weak La Nina conditions, global temperatures remained exceptionally high due to human-driven emissions. It emphasizes that warming of approximately 1.3°C has intensified heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with a specific focus on how women and marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden. The document also identifies a critical gap in climate science, where a lack of observational data in the Global South hinders confident analysis of rainfall events. Finally, it argues that while adaptation is necessary, events like Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean demonstrate that adaptation has limits and cannot replace the urgent need for rapid emission reductions.