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In 2026, Canada experienced a rapid escalation in wildfire activity, with over 3 million hectares burned, primarily between late June and July. The report finds that human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in the Northwest Territories and Ontario, though the degree of attribution varies by region and metric. The fires caused significant public health issues due to smoke exposure affecting over 120 million people in the U.S. and displaced remote and Indigenous communities. While short-term fire weather was linked to warming, the report found no evidence that long-term 24-month drought conditions were driven by human-induced climate change.

Climate Central analysis indicates that climate change increases the probability of performance-impairing heat (above 28°C) for 97 out of 104 scheduled 2026 World Cup matches. Nearly half of the matches face at least a 50% chance of such heat, with the highest impact seen in the June 26 match in Guadalajara. To mitigate health and performance risks, organizers have implemented mandatory hydration breaks and increased evening matches, though only three stadiums (Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston) are fully climate-controlled.

The report analyzes a record-shattering heatwave in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico in March 2026, finding that such an event would have been virtually impossible without anthropogenic climate change. Using a combination of observation-based data and climate models, the study estimates that the intensity of 1-in-100-year March heat events has increased by 2.6°C and their likelihood has increased by a factor of approximately 800. The document highlights the extreme vulnerability of non-acclimatized populations and the risk of accelerated snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Colorado mountains.

In February 2026, intense rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, caused over 70 deaths and displaced nearly 10,000 people, with Juiz de Fora being the most affected city. While climate models project a 7% increase in February rainfall with future warming, the immediate severity of the disaster was driven by high social vulnerability and unplanned urban expansion on steep slopes. Risk assessments had previously identified 130,000 residents in high-risk zones in Juiz de Fora. The study found that while early warnings were issued, topographical constraints and a lack of evacuation options hindered their effectiveness.

The document is a comprehensive glossary designed to bridge the communication gap between the scientific and legal communities in the context of climate litigation. It defines key terms across seven thematic areas: foundational scientific concepts, measurement and data methods, climate and environmental science, risk and impact, public health, Indigenous Knowledge, and socioeconomic policy. The guide emphasizes the distinctions between scientific and legal interpretations of terms like 'bias', 'significance', and 'uncertainty', and explains how attribution science and climate modeling can be used to establish causation and responsibility in court.

The report analyzes 22 extreme weather events in 2025, noting that despite weak La Nina conditions, global temperatures remained exceptionally high due to human-driven emissions. It emphasizes that warming of approximately 1.3°C has intensified heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with a specific focus on how women and marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden. The document also identifies a critical gap in climate science, where a lack of observational data in the Global South hinders confident analysis of rainfall events. Finally, it argues that while adaptation is necessary, events like Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean demonstrate that adaptation has limits and cannot replace the urgent need for rapid emission reductions.

Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, caused widespread destruction and 61 deaths across Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in October 2025. Analysis indicates that climate change increased the likelihood of the extreme conditions that fueled the storm by a factor of about 6 and increased the intensity of associated rainfall by more than 9%. In Jamaica, 5-day rainfall events are now about 30% more intense and twice as likely, while in eastern Cuba, intensity increased by 50% and frequency by a factor of 9. The storm's maximum wind speeds are estimated to be approximately 7% more intense due to warming. Despite financial risk strategies like catastrophe bonds, damages in Jamaica are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude larger than available finance.

The Water Evaluation and Adaptation Planning (WEAP) platform is a scenario-based modelling tool used in 190 countries to integrate supply- and demand-side perspectives for water resilience. It enables users to simulate climate-driven scenarios, evaluate adaptation strategies such as infrastructure upgrades and demand management, and analyze trade-offs at the water-energy-food nexus through integration with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and macroeconomic models. WEAP supports both top-down and locally led initiatives across various scales, from local watersheds to transboundary river basins.

Climate Central analysis of 221 marathons indicates that the probability of optimal, cool race-day temperatures is decreasing due to global warming. For recreational runners in the U.S., the current average chance of optimal temperatures is 27%, and this is projected to decline in 46 of 51 analyzed U.S. marathons by 2045 if high levels of heat-trapping pollution continue. The analysis highlights regional disparities, with the Northwest having the best current odds (55%) and the Southwest the worst (14%). Beyond performance, the document notes that rising heat and humidity increase risks of heat-related illness and that climate-driven air quality issues, such as wildfire smoke, further threaten runner health.

A research analysis by World Weather Attribution finds that human-induced climate change made a July 2025 heatwave in Norway, Sweden, and Finland approximately 2°C hotter and at least ten times more likely than in a preindustrial climate. The event caused significant strain on healthcare systems, disrupted reindeer grazing and Sámi livelihoods, and led to increased drowning deaths and wildfires. The report highlights that current winter-focused building designs in the Nordic region are inadequate for rising temperatures and that similar heatwaves are now twice as likely as they were during the previous major event in 2018 due to a global warming increase from 1.1°C to 1.3°C.

Analysis of 247 major U.S. cities shows that under high-emissions scenarios, summer high temperatures are projected to increase by an average of 3.6°F by 2060 and 7.9°F by 2100. For many cities, these future conditions will resemble current climates in locations hundreds of miles to the south, with 16 cities projected to reach temperatures only currently found in Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa.

An attribution study of heavy rainfall in coastal New South Wales from May 19-22, 2025, found mixed results regarding the influence of climate change. While observational data suggests a doubling in likelihood for the wettest four-day annual event in a 1.3°C warmer climate, climate models show substantial disagreement on rainfall trends for the region. The study emphasizes the need for flexible adaptation strategies due to this uncertainty.

An event attribution study found that human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of the April 2025 extreme rainfall in the Central Mississippi river valley by approximately 40% and its intensity by 9%, though observational data suggests these increases could be as high as a factor of 2 to 5 in likelihood and 13-26% in intensity. The event caused at least 24 fatalities and estimated economic damages between $80 and $90 billion, with significant agricultural losses in Arkansas. The study highlights that while climate change amplified the event, effective early warnings from the US National Weather Service prevented a larger catastrophe, despite current staffing shortages in NWS field offices.

A study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change made a March 2025 heatwave in Central Asia approximately 4 °C hotter and three times more likely. The event saw temperatures exceeding 30 °C even at 1000m altitude, affecting regions including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The analysis notes that climate models underestimate the recent increase in March temperatures, meaning the reported influence of climate change is a conservative estimate. The heatwave coincided with critical agricultural periods, such as the sowing of spring wheat in Kazakhstan and the flowering of export fruit crops, potentially impacting yields in a region where agriculture employs up to 50% of the workforce.

The document identifies a gap between the production of climate information and its actual application in sectors such as health, energy, and agriculture. It attributes this disconnect to mismatches in spatial and temporal scales, the difficulty of interpreting probabilistic data, inherent climate uncertainty, and the conceptualization of the social relevance of scientific research.

The Canadian Climate Institute argues that for the federal government's progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan to be effective, it must provide exhaustive updates on policy implementation, emissions forecasts based on concrete policies rather than extrapolations, transparent modeling assumptions, and a commitment to developing a comprehensive set of progress indicators.

A collaborative study by international scientists found that the extreme heatwave in the Western Mediterranean from 26-28 April 2023 was likely made at least 100 times more probable by human-induced climate change. The event, which saw temperatures up to 20 degrees higher than normal and broke national records in Spain and Portugal, would have been at least 2°C cooler in a world 1.2°C colder. The researchers note that climate models likely underestimate the increase in extreme heat in Western Europe, suggesting their findings are conservative.

The document argues that the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) underestimates the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) compared to Energy Innovation's modeling and other third-party analyses. While the AEO projects a 31% reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 levels, Energy Innovation's analysis finds a 41% reduction. The primary drivers of this discrepancy are the AEO's more conservative estimates of clean energy deployment in the electricity sector and electric vehicle sales, as well as its narrower scope, which focuses only on tax credits and excludes various budget-based government programs and non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

The 2022 rainy season in West Africa saw above-average rainfall and devastating floods, particularly in Nigeria and Niger, where fatalities reached at least 612 and 195 respectively. An attribution study found that climate change made the seasonal rainfall over the Lake Chad region approximately 80 times more likely and 20% more intense, while the 7-day maximum rainfall over the lower Niger Basin became about twice as likely and 5% more intense. Beyond climate change, the flooding was driven by the release of the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon and exacerbated by high poverty rates, political instability, and the location of infrastructure and settlements on flood plains.

A Climate Central analysis projects that by 2100, the average summer warming across 247 U.S. cities will be 8 °F, with many cities experiencing conditions currently found 437 miles to their south. For 16 cities, future summer temperatures will have no equivalent on the North American continent, instead mirroring conditions in Egypt and the Middle East. Specific projections for major cities include New York warming by 7.6 °F (similar to present-day Columbia, S.C.) and Chicago warming by 9.1 °F (similar to Montgomery, Ala.).