Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large-scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa

The 2022 rainy season in West Africa saw above-average rainfall and devastating floods, particularly in Nigeria and Niger, where fatalities reached at least 612 and 195 respectively. An attribution study found that climate change made the seasonal rainfall over the Lake Chad region approximately 80 times more likely and 20% more intense, while the 7-day maximum rainfall over the lower Niger Basin became about twice as likely and 5% more intense. Beyond climate change, the flooding was driven by the release of the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon and exacerbated by high poverty rates, political instability, and the location of infrastructure and settlements on flood plains.

• The 2022 floods in Nigeria and Niger were among the deadliest in their histories, with at least 612 fatalities in Nigeria and 195 in Niger. In Nigeria, the disaster affected 34 of 36 states, impacting over 3.2 million people, displacing 1.5 million, and damaging more than 300,000 homes and over half a million hectares of farmland.
• Human-caused climate change significantly increased the probability and intensity of the rainfall events. For the seasonal rainfall over the Lake Chad region, climate change made the event approximately 80 times more likely and 20% more intense. For the 7-day maximum rainfall over the lower Niger Basin, it made the event about twice as likely and approximately 5% more intense.
• The flooding was caused by a combination of above-average seasonal rainfall, spikes of heavy rain leading to flash and riverine floods, and the release of the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon. The impact of the dam release was worsened by the fact that a complementary dam intended for Nigeria was never completed.
• Socioeconomic factors and infrastructure placement increased the devastation, including the proximity of homes, bridges, and agricultural land to flood plains, as well as high poverty rates, political and economic instability, and vulnerabilities related to age, gender, income, and education.
• In the current climate, these events are not rare, with return times of 1 in 10 years for seasonal rain over the Lake Chad Basin and 1 in 5 years for the 7-day maximum over the lower Niger Basin. Models suggest that in a climate 2°C warmer than preindustrial times, rainfall intensity will increase further.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2022). Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large-scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-heavy-rainfall-leading-to-large-scale-flooding-in-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-west-africa/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large-scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa. 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-heavy-rainfall-leading-to-large-scale-flooding-in-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-west-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large-scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa |date=16 November 2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-heavy-rainfall-leading-to-large-scale-flooding-in-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-west-africa/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2022climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large-scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-heavy-rainfall-leading-to-large-scale-flooding-in-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-west-africa/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }