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The document argues that the 2022 Brisbane and 2022/23 Kimberley floods were made more likely and impactful by human-caused climate change, specifically through increased ocean temperatures, more frequent multi-year La Niña events, and higher atmospheric moisture. It concludes that while the frequency of some weather systems may decrease, the intensity of rainfall and flooding is expected to increase, potentially leading to prohibitive costs for protection and insurance in flood-prone zones.

The document introduces Madagascar as a low-income island nation with high biodiversity and significant vulnerability to extreme weather. It details the country's diverse precipitation patterns, its history of colonial rule and political instability—including a 2009 coup—and its current political landscape under President Andry Rajoelina. The text serves as a foundational context for the 'Current Path' development trajectory forecasts produced by the African Futures & Innovation program.

Comoros is a lower-middle-income island state characterized by a tropical climate prone to intense cyclones and a history of political instability. Its economy relies heavily on subsistence farming, fishing, and EU budgetary support, while its development is hindered by frequent coups and the compounding effects of natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report forecasts that Mauritius will maintain steady economic growth and a high income per capita relative to its African peers, while facing challenges from an ageing population and a high dependence on energy imports. It projects a decline in extreme poverty and a gradual increase in carbon emissions as the economy expands, despite the country's high readiness to respond to climate change.

The report details a framework for assessing climate risks to India's power sector, distinguishing between chronic stresses (e.g., temperature, drought) and acute extremes (e.g., floods, cyclones). It introduces the Asset-Specific Climate Risk Factor (ACRF) for spatial screening and Expected Annual Impact (EAI)—measured as Expected Annual Loss (EAL) for generation and Energy Not Served (ENS) for networks—to quantify operational disruptions in MWh. The methodology includes a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to evaluate the economic viability of resilience measures by comparing investment costs against avoided energy losses and repair expenditures.

The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

The programme aims to transition smallholder farmers in Tonga, Vanuatu, and Samoa to Climate Resilient and Regenerative Agriculture (CRRA) to combat food insecurity caused by erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and intense cyclones. With a total budget of 43,690,709 USD, the initiative focuses on three priority systems: mixed horticulture in Tonga, kava intercropping in Vanuatu, and taro intercropping in Samoa. The strategy employs a 'learning by doing' approach using 90 'Learning Farms' to provide evidence of financial viability, which will then be scaled to 12,510 farmers. Key components include a Farmer Support Programme (FSP) to cover upfront costs, the creation of national CRRA Working Groups for policy reform, and the development of digital agricultural apps and monitoring systems to track soil health and productivity. The project expects to restore 20,730 hectares of land and provide direct adaptation benefits to 50,654 individuals by 2031.

The document reports that 2025 is virtually certain to be among the top five hottest years globally, driven by rising carbon pollution from fossil fuels. In the U.S., record high temperatures significantly outpaced record lows, and the year saw a record-costly start for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, including the most expensive wildfire event on record in Los Angeles. Globally, carbon pollution intensified Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica. The report also highlights a trend of 'hydroclimate whiplash' contributing to both the Los Angeles fires and deadly flash floods in Texas, while noting that the U.S. has rolled back key clean energy policies and is set to withdraw from the Paris Agreement by January 2026.

A World Weather Attribution study examines the role of climate change and natural variability in the devastating floods of November 2025 across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait. While observational data indicate a significant increase in the intensity of extreme 5-day rainfall events—up to 160% in Sri Lanka and 50% in the Malacca Strait due to a 1.3°C rise in global temperatures—climate models failed to consistently capture these trends, preventing a definitive quantitative attribution. The study also notes that La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributed between 5% and 13% to the rainfall in the Malacca Strait, while rapid urbanization and infrastructure failures exacerbated the humanitarian impact.

The document outlines how human-caused climate change affects different weather phenomena. It states that extreme heat, marine heat waves, and the intensity of heavy rain and hurricanes are increasing, while extreme cold is becoming less likely. It notes that while climate change increases hot, dry conditions contributing to droughts and wildfires, other factors like land use also play a role. For localized severe storms, the document explains that current climate models cannot yet accurately simulate specific events to make direct attribution statements.

The PrAda 2+ project is a six-year initiative designed to adapt agricultural value chains in Madagascar to climate change, specifically targeting the coffee, clove, peanut, pepper, and vanilla sectors. With a total budget of 61,338,446.72 Euros (including 43,623,766.13 Euros from the Green Climate Fund), the project aims to benefit 314,800 direct and 2,650,000 indirect beneficiaries across the regions of Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Atsinanana, Vatovavy, Fitovinany, and Atsinanana. The project focuses on three main components: implementing climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) technologies, expanding financial services for CRA investments through the Agricultural Development Fund (FDA), and improving the entrepreneurial and institutional environment for agricultural services. Key interventions include the dissemination of tailored agrometeorological information, the promotion of climate-resilient crop varieties, and the establishment of Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs).

The project seeks USD 39,982,375 in GCF grants to enhance the climate resilience of the Cook Islands' building stock, specifically targeting Category 3 tropical cyclone compliance. It employs a programmatic approach through an EDA Facility that provides tiered financing—ranging from 100% grants for the most vulnerable to partially reimbursable grants for businesses—to upgrade approximately 50% of non-compliant dwellings. The initiative includes capacity building for tradespeople and inspectors, the installation of community and household water tanks, and the upgrade of septic systems to protect coral reef ecosystems. Implementation is led by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Management (MFEM), Climate Change Cook Islands (CCCI), and the Bank of the Cook Islands (BCI).

Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, caused widespread destruction and 61 deaths across Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in October 2025. Analysis indicates that climate change increased the likelihood of the extreme conditions that fueled the storm by a factor of about 6 and increased the intensity of associated rainfall by more than 9%. In Jamaica, 5-day rainfall events are now about 30% more intense and twice as likely, while in eastern Cuba, intensity increased by 50% and frequency by a factor of 9. The storm's maximum wind speeds are estimated to be approximately 7% more intense due to warming. Despite financial risk strategies like catastrophe bonds, damages in Jamaica are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude larger than available finance.

Climate Central argues that the Department of Energy (DOE) report, “A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate,” fails to represent the scientific consensus and should not serve as a policy basis. The organization asserts that the DOE report selectively ignores two decades of scientific developments and omits major international assessments. Specifically, Climate Central contends that the DOE understates the link between human-caused climate change and the increasing intensity, rainfall, and rapid intensification of hurricanes, as well as the acceleration of sea-level rise. It further argues that the DOE's analysis of temperature extremes is misleading by focusing on the 1930s Dust Bowl era without global context and that its assessment of wildfires in the western U.S. is incomplete. Finally, the document disputes the DOE's claims regarding solar variations and the validity of extreme event attribution (EEA) methodologies, while arguing that the DOE's use of GDP to downplay disaster costs ignores the increasing physical hazards of climate change.

Between 1980 and 2024, the U.S. experienced 403 billion-dollar disasters resulting in over $2.9 trillion in direct costs and nearly 17,000 deaths. The frequency and cost of these events have risen sharply, with the average time between disasters dropping from 82 days in the 1980s to 19 days in the last decade. Tropical cyclones are the costliest event type, while severe storms are the most frequent.

Climate Central analysis finds that human-caused global warming increased the maximum wind speeds of every Atlantic hurricane in 2024 by 3 to 14 mph. This intensification was driven by record-breaking sea surface temperatures, which were made up to 800 times more likely by climate change. The report specifically highlights that major hurricanes Helene and Milton were strengthened by 10 mph and 8 mph respectively, and that three hurricanes were pushed into higher Saffir-Simpson categories due to this warming.

The guide outlines the relationship between climate change and four types of summer extreme weather. It notes that heat is the deadliest weather event, killing nearly 500,000 people annually since 2000 globally, and that fossil fuel pollution drives these heat waves. It explains that oceans absorb nearly 90% of Earth's excess heat, which supercharges hurricanes by increasing intensity, rain rates, and storm surges. Regarding flooding, the guide states that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to more frequent and intense heavy rainfall since the 1950s. Finally, it attributes the increasing threat and length of wildfire seasons to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns that make vegetation more flammable.

The document details the link between rising global temperatures and the intensification of extreme weather events in Canada, such as hail, windstorms, and hurricanes. It highlights significant insured losses in provinces like Alberta, Quebec, and Ontario, and notes a trend of tornado-prone areas shifting eastward. The text emphasizes the need for improved early warning systems, resilient building codes, and nature-based coastal protections to adapt to these increasing risks.

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather globally, with warmer temperatures providing more energy for storms. In Canada, this manifests as more frequent and severe convective storms, including hailstorms, windstorms, and hurricanes. Significant economic losses have already occurred, such as a $3.2 billion hailstorm in Calgary in 2024. Regional projections indicate increased storm intensity in the Prairies, eastern Canada, and Atlantic Canada, while the Pacific coast faces a higher likelihood of extreme atmospheric river events. Adaptation needs include improved forecasting, updated building codes for wind and hail resilience, and revised land-use policies to move development away from high-risk areas.

The report explores how traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of the iTaukei people in Fiji serves as a cost-effective tool for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. It details specific TEK applications, such as traditional building techniques, food preservation, and natural early warning systems based on animal and plant behavior. The document also discusses the importance of traditional governance and spirituality in resilience and outlines current government efforts to revitalize and preserve this knowledge.