Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for Mauritius from 2019 to 2043. It analyzes demographic shifts toward an aging population, steady economic growth driven by services, the reduction of extreme poverty, and the country's energy dependence and climate vulnerability.

• Mauritius is experiencing a demographic shift toward an older population, with those aged over 65 expected to increase by 10 percentage points of the total population by 2043. This trend, combined with a low total fertility rate of 1.4 births per woman in 2019, is projected to lead to a population decrease of 22,000 people by 2043 compared to 2019 levels.
• The country is projected to remain predominantly rural, with only 41.2% of the population living in urban areas by 2043. This is attributed to the limited available land on the main island, where 39.4% was used for agricultural cultivation and 19% was protected forest in 2019.
• Mauritius' economy is expected to grow steadily, with GDP projected to increase from US$16.7 billion in 2019 to US$27.3 billion by 2043. GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$29,114 by 2043, representing a 30% increase over 2019 levels.
• The economy is heavily dominated by the services sector, which accounted for 69.7% of GDP in 2019. This shift toward services has led to a skilled labour shortage, increased wage income inequality—particularly for women—and rising youth unemployment as fewer young people enter low-skilled agriculture or manufacturing.
• Extreme poverty, measured at the US$5.50 per person per day line, was 7.7% in 2019 and is projected to be eliminated by 2036, eventually declining to 1.2% by 2043. This performance is significantly better than that of COMESA and SADC peers.
• Mauritius is highly dependent on energy imports, which met 97% of demand in 2019. Local production is minimal (0.0003 BBOE in 2019) and relies on hydro and other renewables, the latter of which primarily uses bagasse from sugar cane.
• Carbon emissions reached 1.3 million tons in 2019 and are projected to rise to 1.8 million tons by 2043. Despite this increase, the country is ranked as having high readiness and low vulnerability to climate change according to the ND-GAIN Country Index.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026mauritius, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }