Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path

The report forecasts that Mauritius will maintain steady economic growth and a high income per capita relative to its African peers, while facing challenges from an ageing population and a high dependence on energy imports. It projects a decline in extreme poverty and a gradual increase in carbon emissions as the economy expands, despite the country's high readiness to respond to climate change.

• Mauritius is experiencing a demographic shift toward an older population, with those aged over 65 expected to make up an additional 10 percentage points of the total population by 2043. This trend, combined with a low total fertility rate of 1.4 births per woman in 2019, is projected to result in a population decrease of 22,000 people by 2043 compared to 2019 levels.
• The economy is projected to grow steadily, with GDP increasing from US$16.7 billion in 2019 to US$27.3 billion by 2043. GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$29,114 by 2043, maintaining Mauritius' position as one of the highest income per capita countries in Africa.
• The Mauritian economy is dominated by the services sector, which accounted for 69.7% of GDP in 2019. This shift toward services has led to a skilled labour shortage and increased wage income inequality, particularly affecting women due to low labour force participation.
• Extreme poverty, measured at the US$5.50 per person per day line for upper middle-income countries, was 7.7% in 2019 and is projected to be eliminated by 2036, eventually falling to 1.2% by 2043.
• Mauritius is almost entirely dependent on energy imports, which met 97% of demand in 2019. Local production is minimal and consists of hydro and other renewables, with the latter primarily derived from sugar cane bagasse.
• Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043, driven by economic and manufacturing growth. Despite this, the country is ranked high for readiness and low for vulnerability in the ND-GAIN Country Index regarding climate change resilience.
• The country faces significant climate risks from cyclones; over the last 40 years, 13 cyclones caused damages exceeding US$400 million. Forecasts indicate that while rainy days are decreasing, storms are more frequently reaching cyclone strength.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026mauritius, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{Mauritius Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }