Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa: testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba

Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, caused widespread destruction and 61 deaths across Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in October 2025. Analysis indicates that climate change increased the likelihood of the extreme conditions that fueled the storm by a factor of about 6 and increased the intensity of associated rainfall by more than 9%. In Jamaica, 5-day rainfall events are now about 30% more intense and twice as likely, while in eastern Cuba, intensity increased by 50% and frequency by a factor of 9. The storm's maximum wind speeds are estimated to be approximately 7% more intense due to warming. Despite financial risk strategies like catastrophe bonds, damages in Jamaica are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude larger than available finance.

• Climate change has significantly increased the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in the affected regions. In Jamaica, 5-day rainfall events are approximately 30% more intense and twice as likely in the current climate, which is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human influence. In eastern Cuba, the increase in intensity is about 50% and the frequency has increased by a factor of 9.
• The analysis estimates that the intensity of rainfall associated with hurricanes like Melissa has increased by more than 9% due to a warming climate. Additionally, the IRIS model suggests that climate change increased the frequency of storms with similar wind speeds by a factor of about 5, with maximum wind speeds now approximately 5.1 m/s (around 7%) more intense.
• Human-induced climate change has made the conditions that fuel hurricanes more extreme. While natural variability (Atlantic Multidecadal Variability) explains about 43% of the potential intensity variability in the Caribbean, climate change increased the likelihood of conditions as extreme as those seen in October 2025 by a factor of about 6.
• Hurricane Melissa caused severe human and infrastructure impacts, resulting in 61 total deaths across the Caribbean islands, including 28 in Jamaica, 31 in Haiti, and 2 in the Dominican Republic. In Jamaica, 25,000 people were displaced, and in Cuba, over 140,000 people were affected by the loss of communication in 241 communities.
• Jamaica's financial adaptation strategies, including a US$150 million catastrophe bond and parametric insurance through the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), are insufficient for the scale of the disaster. Preliminary estimates indicate that damages from Hurricane Melissa are at least ten times larger than the available finance.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa: testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-enhanced-intensity-of-hurricane-melissa-testing-limits-of-adaptation-in-jamaica-and-eastern-cuba/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa: testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-enhanced-intensity-of-hurricane-melissa-testing-limits-of-adaptation-in-jamaica-and-eastern-cuba/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa: testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-enhanced-intensity-of-hurricane-melissa-testing-limits-of-adaptation-in-jamaica-and-eastern-cuba/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa: testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-enhanced-intensity-of-hurricane-melissa-testing-limits-of-adaptation-in-jamaica-and-eastern-cuba/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }