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The document outlines a simulated agricultural revolution in Africa based on eight interventions: increasing crop yields, expanding irrigation, increasing water withdrawal, protecting forests, improving supply chains, enhancing rural road access, and increasing per capita calories. The scenario predicts that by 2043, average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare (a 37% increase over the 'Current Path') and irrigated land will grow to 17.4 million hectares. It emphasizes the role of these interventions in reducing food loss and waste—projected to drop to 19.4% by 2033—and improving rural accessibility to 69%. The model balances agricultural expansion with forest protection, aiming to save 30 million hectares of forest land by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

The review finds that neonicotinoid seed treatments (NSTs) often fail to provide statistically significant increases in yield or profitability for North American farmers, particularly in colder regions like the Midwest and Northern U.S. where early-season pest pressure is lower. While some positive returns on investment (ROI) were observed in the U.S. South due to milder winters and higher pest pressure, these results were inconsistent year-to-year. The document highlights significant ecological harms, including the reduction of predator insect populations, damage to pollinators, and disruption of soil decomposition. It argues that a shift from prophylactic use to an 'assess-and-decide' approach based on actual pest pressure would save farmers money without reducing yields.

WEAP is a comprehensive software tool for integrated water resources planning used by over 50,000 users in nearly 200 countries. It functions as a database, forecasting tool, and policy analysis system that balances water demand—including use patterns and allocation—with supply factors like streamflow and groundwater. The software features a GIS-based graphical interface and supports scenario-based analysis to evaluate the impacts of climate change, demographic shifts, and policy changes on water systems. It has been applied in diverse global contexts, including projects in China, Rwanda, Colombia, India, Nepal, and California, to support stakeholder dialogue and evaluate environmental flows.

The document highlights a 73% decline in average wildlife populations since 1970 as a critical warning for the global economy. It asserts that nature loss threatens global GDP, with specific risks identified in the EU and Asia Pacific, and predicts a potential $2.7 trillion loss by 2030 due to the collapse of ecosystem services. The author calls on the business and finance sectors to transition toward net-zero, nature-positive markets using tools like the Biodiversity Risk Filter and Science-Based Targets for Nature.

The assessment identifies agriculture as the most vulnerable sector in the Kassena Nankana Municipality, with high sensitivity in zonal councils like Biu and Doba due to the prevalence of mud-brick housing and flood-prone farmlands. While the quantitative Vulnerability Index suggests that adaptive capacity currently outweighs exposure and sensitivity across all zonal councils, Naaga is identified as the most vulnerable area due to its low adaptive capacity and high exposure to the White Volta River. Future projections indicate rising temperatures and irregular rainfall, which are expected to reduce maize and soybean yields and increase the prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases like cerebrospinal meningitis.

The report examines Tunisia's agricultural sector, highlighting low crop yields, high food dependence, and significant crop waste. It argues that state intervention has prioritised food security over agricultural development, hindering productivity. Furthermore, it details the severe threats posed by climate change, including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and reduced agricultural output, which threaten the country's economy, infrastructure, and public health.

A collaborative study by international scientists found that the extreme heatwave in the Western Mediterranean from 26-28 April 2023 was likely made at least 100 times more probable by human-induced climate change. The event, which saw temperatures up to 20 degrees higher than normal and broke national records in Spain and Portugal, would have been at least 2°C cooler in a world 1.2°C colder. The researchers note that climate models likely underestimate the increase in extreme heat in Western Europe, suggesting their findings are conservative.

An analysis of 215 U.S. locations reveals that 84% have experienced a long-term decrease in winter chill since 1980. This trend threatens the $27 billion U.S. non-citrus fruit and nut industry, as many temperate trees require sustained cold temperatures to ensure proper flowering, pollination, and fruit yield. The study highlights significant chill decreases in key producing regions, particularly in California, Washington, and the Southeast, affecting high-value crops such as grapes, almonds, and strawberries.

The research analyzes how climate-induced crop yield changes between 2070 and 2099 may disrupt global food trade networks for wheat, rice, and maize. Using a network model, the study finds that maize trade is the least stable of the three crops and suggests that global food security will depend on production changes in major producers and the ability of trade communities to balance losses in vulnerable countries.

Between 1970 and 2021, growing degree days (GDD)—a measure of heat accumulation used to track plant and pest development—increased at 97% of 246 analyzed stations across the contiguous U.S. The average increase was 525 GDD, with the most significant rises occurring in the West, Southwest, and South. While some plants may benefit, increased GDD is linked to higher water and heat stress, altered agricultural schedules, and longer pollen seasons that exacerbate health issues like asthma and hay fever.

The research evaluates future food security using the FEEDME model, incorporating IPCC climate scenarios and Shared Socio-economic Pathways. The findings suggest that while climate change affects crop yields, population growth is the primary driver of undernourishment prevalence, with rapid population growth correlating with the worst food security outcomes.

The paper introduces a new approach to assess how individual commodity traders are exposed to long-term climate change risks by utilizing gridded crop yield projections and subnational supply chain data. Applying this method to the Brazilian soy sector, the authors find that risk exposure varies significantly between traders because of differences in their sourcing patterns, despite overall uncertainty in crop model yield projections.

The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)—including precipitation, temperature, and evaporation—are integrated into the SAVi Irrigation model. It provides a literature review on the impacts of temperature and precipitation on crop yields and water requirements, establishes the methodology for calculating net and total irrigation requirements, and presents simulation results for Johannesburg under the IPSL RCP8.5 scenario, projecting a 23% increase in net irrigation requirements by 2090-2100.

The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) are integrated into the SAVi tool to improve the analysis of infrastructure resilience. It covers a literature review of climate impacts on energy, irrigation, wastewater, buildings, roads, and nature-based infrastructure, providing specific equations to link climate variables to asset performance. The report includes simulation results for Johannesburg, South Africa, demonstrating how climate variables like temperature and precipitation affect load factors, thermal efficiency, and maintenance costs, ultimately impacting the economic viability and societal costs of these assets.

The analysis finds that rural credit for small farmers (specifically through PRONAF) increases crop and cattle productivity and reduces deforestation by converting pasture to cropland. Conversely, credit for large farmers and firms is associated with the expansion of both cropland and pasture, leading to higher deforestation. The document recommends that Brazilian policymakers prioritize small farmers in credit distribution to align subsidies with forest conservation goals.

The study finds that accelerated leaf senescence is the primary mechanism by which ozone pollution reduces crop yield, rather than direct impairment of photosynthesis in un-senesced leaves. It concludes that the Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), based on stomatal O3 flux, is a more accurate predictor of physiological response than 24-hour mean concentrations or AOT40.

The document examines the reciprocal relationship between climate change and land in South Asia, highlighting the region's high vulnerability to desertification and land degradation. It details how these processes act as 'threat multipliers' for poverty and food insecurity, specifically citing crop yield declines in India and Pakistan. The guide proposes integrated governance, sustainable land management (SLM), and gender-responsive policies as essential strategies for resilience. It emphasizes that while land-based mitigation (like afforestation) is valuable, it must be balanced with emissions reductions in other sectors to avoid increasing competition for land and jeopardizing food security.

The study estimates that tropospheric ozone significantly reduces global yields for soybean, wheat, rice, and maize, with the highest losses occurring in regions already stressed by pests, heat, and nutrient deficiencies. It advocates for integrating ozone tolerance into crop breeding programmes and altering management approaches to close the 'ozone yield gap'.

The Caribbean faced $33bn in natural disaster damages between 2000 and 2009, representing 61% of its 2014 regional GDP. Climate change threatens key sectors: 94% of tourist accommodation in Belize is vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding, while 90% of agricultural land is rain-fed. Projections indicate divergent crop impacts, with Jamaica's sweet potato yields potentially increasing by 33% by mid-century, while Belize's corn yields may decrease by 25% by 2030. Financial losses are widespread, with 25% of surveyed households using education savings for reconstruction.