The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report examines Tunisia's agricultural sector, highlighting low crop yields, high food dependence, and significant crop waste. It argues that state intervention has prioritised food security over agricultural development, hindering productivity. Furthermore, it details the severe threats posed by climate change, including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and reduced agricultural output, which threaten the country's economy, infrastructure, and public health.

• Tunisia's agricultural sector is characterized by low productivity and high resource consumption; average crop yields are under 2 tonnes per hectare, while the sector consumes 80% of the country's natural water resources. Projections for 2040 suggest only a slight increase in yields to 2.4 tonnes per hectare, remaining far below the OLMIC average of approximately 7.5 tonnes per hectare.
• Tunisia suffers from significant food dependence and waste. Food dependence exceeded 55% of consumption in 2019, with one in two Tunisians consuming imported food. Additionally, the country loses more than 20% of its crops to waste, with an estimated 900,000 units of bread wasted daily, costing roughly TND 100 million (€50.8 million) annually.
• A World Bank study indicates that Tunisia lacks a comprehensive agricultural policy, instead implementing a food security policy that hinders sector development. State intervention has shifted production away from Mediterranean products, where the country has a comparative advantage, toward less competitive continental products, resulting in suboptimal productivity.
• Climate change poses severe economic and physical risks to Tunisia. USAID projects an output reduction of €2–2.7 billion between 2000 and 2030 due to stagnant yields and rising global food prices. Physical threats include a projected increase in annual maximum temperatures of 1.5–2.5 °C by 2030 and 1.9–3.8 °C by 2050, as well as a sea-level rise of 3–61 cm this century.
• Environmental degradation and climate change threaten Tunisia's infrastructure and public health. Sea-level rise and erosion threaten the coastline where 84% of the population resides, potentially damaging roads and water sanitation facilities. Health risks include higher mortality from extreme heat, increased malnutrition from crop failure, and limited access to clean water.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }