The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This special report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the agricultural sector and climate change vulnerabilities in Tunisia, highlighting low crop yields, high food dependence, and the projected economic and environmental impacts of rising temperatures and sea levels through 2040 and 2050.

• Agriculture is a vital part of the Tunisian economy, contributing approximately 12% of GDP and employing about 16% of the workforce. Tunisia is a leading global producer and exporter of olive oil and maintains self-sufficiency in fruit, vegetables, and dairy products.
• Tunisia faces significant agricultural productivity challenges, with average crop yields under 2 tonnes per hectare, far below the 6.3 metric tonnes average for other low-middle income countries (OLMICs). Despite consuming 80% of the country's natural water resources, yields have remained largely stagnant since independence and are projected to reach only 2.4 tonnes per hectare by 2040.
• The country suffers from high food dependence and waste. Food dependence exceeded 55% of consumption in 2019, with one in two Tunisians consuming imported food. Additionally, more than 20% of crops are lost to waste, including an estimated 900,000 units of bread wasted daily, costing roughly TND 100 million (€50.8 million) per year.
• A World Bank study indicates that Tunisia's focus on food security policy rather than a comprehensive agricultural policy has hindered the sector. State interventions have shifted production toward less competitive continental products instead of Mediterranean products where the country has a natural comparative advantage.
• Climate change poses severe risks to Tunisia's economy and infrastructure. USAID projects an output reduction of €2–2.7 billion between 2000 and 2030. Projected temperature increases include a rise in annual maximum temperatures of 1.5–2.5 °C by 2030 and 1.9–3.8 °C by 2050, while sea levels are expected to rise by 3–61 cm this century, threatening coastal infrastructure and tourism revenue.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=06-agriculture}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }