The Agriculture scenario

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

• The Agriculture scenario forecasts that Africa's average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare by 2043, a 37% increase over the 'Current Path' forecast of 5.1 tons per hectare. The most significant gains are expected in Central and East Africa, with yields increasing by 41% above the Current Path, while Central and Southern Africa would see increases of 40% and 35% respectively.
• To combat climate change and desertification, the scenario models an increase in irrigated land to 17.4 million hectares by 2043, which is 3.6 million hectares (or 26%) more than the Current Path. Regional impacts vary: Southern Africa would see a 71% increase to 3.6 million hectares, East Africa a 34% increase to 5 million hectares, and West Africa a 49% increase to 1.4 million hectares.
• The scenario proposes increasing Africa's total water supply by 14% compared to the Current Path by 2043, reaching 309 cubic kilometers instead of 267. This is necessary because Africa (excluding South Africa) has the world's lowest water storage capacity at 43 m per person.
• Environmental interventions in the scenario aim to stop deforestation by 2036 and restore forest land to 2029 levels by 2043. This would save 30 million hectares of forest land compared to the Current Path, limiting the decline to 622 million hectares by 2043 rather than 592 million. This protection reduces the expansion of cropland by 12 million hectares and grazing land by 17 million hectares relative to the Current Path.
• The scenario targets a reduction in food loss and waste, which is currently 24% in Africa and up to 30% in West Africa. Under the Agriculture scenario, food loss and waste are forecast to drop to 19.4% by 2033, compared to a Current Path forecast where they would increase to 26.3% by 2043.
• Investment in rural roads is modeled to increase rural accessibility to 69% by 2043, compared to 62% in the Current Path. The most significant improvement is in Central Africa, where accessibility would rise from 47% (Current Path) to 57%.
• To improve domestic food security, the scenario forecasts an increase in average calories per person per day by 4.4% by 2043 compared to the Current Path, reaching 2936 calories. Central Africa would see the largest improvement at 9% above the Current Path.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Agriculture scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Agriculture scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Agriculture scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Agriculture scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }