The Agriculture scenario

The document outlines a simulated agricultural revolution in Africa based on eight interventions: increasing crop yields, expanding irrigation, increasing water withdrawal, protecting forests, improving supply chains, enhancing rural road access, and increasing per capita calories. The scenario predicts that by 2043, average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare (a 37% increase over the 'Current Path') and irrigated land will grow to 17.4 million hectares. It emphasizes the role of these interventions in reducing food loss and waste—projected to drop to 19.4% by 2033—and improving rural accessibility to 69%. The model balances agricultural expansion with forest protection, aiming to save 30 million hectares of forest land by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

• The Agriculture scenario projects that Africa's average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare by 2043, which is a 37% improvement over the Current Path forecast of 5.1 tons per hectare. The most significant gains are expected in Central and East Africa, where yields are forecast to increase by 41% above the Current Path.
• To adapt to climate change, the scenario models an increase in irrigated land to 17.4 million hectares by 2043, a 26% increase over the Current Path. Regional impacts vary, with Southern Africa seeing a 71% increase (to 3.6 million hectares) and East Africa a 34% increase (to 5 million hectares).
• The scenario implements an ecosystem-based approach to limit deforestation, forecasting that forest land will be 622 million hectares by 2043, saving 30 million hectares compared to the Current Path. This protection results in a smaller expansion of cropland (300 million hectares by 2043) and grazing land (903 million hectares by 2043) than the Current Path predicts.
• Interventions to improve food supply chains and reduce post-harvest losses are projected to lower food loss and waste to 19.4% by 2033, contrasting with the Current Path forecast where loss and waste would increase to 26.3% by 2043.
• The scenario aims to increase rural road accessibility to 69% by 2043, compared to 62% in the Current Path. The most substantial improvement is in Central Africa, where accessibility is forecast to rise from 47% to 57%.
• To improve domestic food security, the scenario projects an increase in average calories per person per day by 4.4% by 2043 compared to the Current Path, reaching 2936 calories per capita. Central Africa sees the largest improvement at 9% above the Current Path.
• The scenario includes a 14% increase in total water supply in Africa by 2043 (309 cubic kilometers instead of 267) to support expanded irrigation, particularly in dryland and savanna areas.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Agriculture scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Agriculture scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Agriculture scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Agriculture scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=09-agricultural-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }