Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria almost impossible without climate change

A collaborative study by international scientists found that the extreme heatwave in the Western Mediterranean from 26-28 April 2023 was likely made at least 100 times more probable by human-induced climate change. The event, which saw temperatures up to 20 degrees higher than normal and broke national records in Spain and Portugal, would have been at least 2°C cooler in a world 1.2°C colder. The researchers note that climate models likely underestimate the increase in extreme heat in Western Europe, suggesting their findings are conservative.

• During the final week of April 2023, temperatures in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and Algeria were up to 20 degrees above normal. National April records were broken in mainland Spain (38.8°C) and Portugal (36.9°C), while temperatures in Morocco exceeded 41°C in cities including Marrakech, Taroudant, and Sidi-Slimane. In Algeria, temperatures surpassed 40°C on 28 April in Mascara-Ghriss and Maghnia.
• The heatwave event of 26-28 April 2023 was an extremely rare occurrence even in the current climate, with an estimated return period of 60 to 400 years, representing a 0.25% annual probability.
• Human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of this heatwave by at least a factor of 100. In a world 1.2°C colder, a heatwave with the same probability of occurrence would have been at least 2°C cooler.
• The study indicates that climate models systematically underestimate the increase in extreme heat in Western Europe compared to observations, meaning the estimated likelihood increase is likely too conservative. In a future climate 0.8°C warmer (reaching 2°C above pre-industrial levels), such a heatwave would be at least 1°C hotter.
• The heatwave occurred during a multi-year drought, threatening crop yields for wheat by hindering grain filling. The event also posed significant health risks; early heatwaves are particularly deadly due to lack of population acclimatisation and lower preparedness.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria almost impossible without climate change. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria almost impossible without climate change. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria almost impossible without climate change |date=5 May 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023extreme, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria almost impossible without climate change}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }