El Niño and Climate Change

The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

• Forecasts for 2026 indicate a 61% probability that El Niño will emerge between May and July and last until at least the end of the year, with some scientific warnings that it could be the strongest event in 140 years.
• Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño and La Niña events, with some projections suggesting a doubling of extreme El Niño events as global temperatures rise.
• There is a shift in the type of El Niño events occurring; Central-Pacific (CP) events have increased in frequency since 2000 and are projected to increase five-fold under climate change, while Eastern-Pacific (EP) events are expected to become more extreme.
• Global warming complicates the detection and prediction of El Niño because rising sea surface temperatures make historical baselines less reliable, requiring the use of relative SST anomalies compared to the tropical mean.
• El Niño has diverse global agricultural impacts, reducing grain yields across 22–24% of harvested areas—specifically for maize, rice, and wheat—while increasing soybean yields in major producing regions like the US and Brazil.
• In Africa, El Niño is linked to increased flooding and cholera in East Africa, while southern Africa faces droughts that reduce maize yields and hydropower generation, such as at the Kariba Dam serving Zambia and Zimbabwe.
• Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events can turn the Amazon into a net carbon source due to lower rainfall across all seasons, which dries out trees and slows their growth.

APA

Team, Z. (2026). El Niño and Climate Change. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. El Niño and Climate Change. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=El Niño and Climate Change |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2026nio, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{El Niño and Climate Change}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }