El Niño and Climate Change

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics explains the mechanisms of El Niño, its interaction with climate change, and its global socio-economic and environmental impacts. It highlights a 61% chance of an El Niño event emerging between May and July 2026, noting that human-caused warming is likely increasing the frequency and severity of such events, while simultaneously making them harder to predict.

• There is a 61% probability that an El Niño event will emerge between May and July 2026 and continue until at least the end of the year. Some models suggest this event could be very strong, with some scientists warning it may be the strongest in 140 years.
• Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of El Niño events. Specifically, projections suggest a five-fold increase in Central-Pacific (CP) events, while Eastern-Pacific (EP) events are expected to become more extreme. Some projections indicate a doubling of extreme El Niño events as global temperatures rise.
• Global warming complicates the prediction of El Niño events because rising sea surface temperatures (SST) often exceed historical baselines used for measurement. To counter this, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is shifting toward using relative SST anomalies, comparing the Niño 3.4 region to the tropical mean rather than a fixed historical baseline.
• El Niño has widespread global impacts on agriculture, causing grain yield reductions in approximately 22–24% of global harvested areas, particularly in Africa, Australia, and South/Southeast Asia. Conversely, it positively impacts yields in 30–36% of areas, often in the Americas. Globally, it tends to reduce yields for rice, wheat, and maize, while soybean yields often increase.
• The phenomenon is linked to severe regional disruptions: increased flooding in East Africa and the southern US; drought and fire risks in Australia, Indonesia, and the Amazon; and reduced monsoon rains in India. In the Philippines, the 2015/2016 event caused USD 327 million in agricultural losses.
• El Niño events can have long-term health and economic consequences. They are linked to increased disease risks, such as a threefold increase in cholera incidence in sensitive East African areas and outbreaks of dengue fever and malaria in Colombia. In high-income Pacific Rim countries, these events can slow mortality improvements and reduce life expectancy.
• Extreme El Niño events can significantly raise global temperatures. An extreme event can add an extra 0.2°C to the Earth's average temperature; combined with existing global warming, this could lead to global average temperatures exceeding 1.7°C in 2026.

APA

Team, Z. (2026). El Niño and Climate Change. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. El Niño and Climate Change. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=El Niño and Climate Change |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2026nio, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{El Niño and Climate Change}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/el-nino-and-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }