2025 Summer Package

Analysis of 247 major U.S. cities shows that under high-emissions scenarios, summer high temperatures are projected to increase by an average of 3.6°F by 2060 and 7.9°F by 2100. For many cities, these future conditions will resemble current climates in locations hundreds of miles to the south, with 16 cities projected to reach temperatures only currently found in Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa.

• Since 1970, summers have warmed in 97% of the 242 U.S. cities analyzed, with 234 of those major cities seeing an average increase of 2.6°F.
• Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), summer high temperatures across 247 analyzed U.S. cities are projected to rise by an average of 3.6°F by 2060 and 7.9°F by 2100, shifting their climate to resemble locations an average of 437 miles to the south.
• Sixteen U.S. cities are projected to experience summer heat by 2100 that has no equivalent in North America, instead mirroring current conditions in North Africa, the Middle East, and Pakistan. Examples include Houston resembling Lahore, Pakistan; Phoenix and Austin resembling the Middle East; and Bryan, Texas resembling North Africa.
• Among the five largest U.S. cities, projected warming by 2100 varies: New York (7.6°F), Los Angeles (5.8°F), Chicago (9.1°F), Houston (6.4°F), and Phoenix (7.2°F). Mitchell, S.D. is projected to experience the highest warming of all analyzed cities at 11.1°F.
• Increasing summer heat contributes to higher weather-related mortality—with 2,325 heat-related deaths in the U.S. in 2023—and exacerbates risks such as degraded air quality (ground-level ozone) and power grid instability, with weather-related outages increasing 60% since the 2000s.

APA

Climate Central (2025). 2025 Summer Package. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-cities-2025

Chicago

Climate Central. 2025 Summer Package. 2025. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-cities-2025.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=2025 Summer Package |date=9 July 2025 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-cities-2025 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral20252025, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{2025 Summer Package}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-cities-2025}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }