Extraordinary March heatwave in Central Asia: up to 10 °C hotter in a warming climate

A study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change made a March 2025 heatwave in Central Asia approximately 4 °C hotter and three times more likely. The event saw temperatures exceeding 30 °C even at 1000m altitude, affecting regions including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The analysis notes that climate models underestimate the recent increase in March temperatures, meaning the reported influence of climate change is a conservative estimate. The heatwave coincided with critical agricultural periods, such as the sowing of spring wheat in Kazakhstan and the flowering of export fruit crops, potentially impacting yields in a region where agriculture employs up to 50% of the workforce.

• Human-induced climate change increased the intensity of the March 2025 heat event by approximately 4 °C and made it about three times more likely to occur.
• In a climate 1.3 °C colder, the observed temperatures would have been extremely unlikely, and a comparable 1-in-3-year March heat event would have been 5 to 10 °C cooler.
• Current climate models underestimate the increase in March maximum and minimum temperatures observed in recent years, which is stronger than in other months; consequently, the study's findings on climate change influence are conservative estimates.
• The heatwave posed risks to agriculture, which employs up to 50% of the workforce in affected countries, specifically coinciding with the sowing of spring wheat in Kazakhstan and the flowering of key export fruit crops.
• Future projections suggest that at 2.6 °C of global warming, the likelihood of such events will at least double and intensity will increase by a further 2 °C.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Extraordinary March heatwave in Central Asia: up to 10 °C hotter in a warming climate. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Extraordinary March heatwave in Central Asia: up to 10 °C hotter in a warming climate. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Extraordinary March heatwave in Central Asia: up to 10 °C hotter in a warming climate |date=4 April 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025extraordinary, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Extraordinary March heatwave in Central Asia: up to 10 °C hotter in a warming climate}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }