Shifting U.S. Cities

A Climate Central analysis projects that by 2100, the average summer warming across 247 U.S. cities will be 8 °F, with many cities experiencing conditions currently found 437 miles to their south. For 16 cities, future summer temperatures will have no equivalent on the North American continent, instead mirroring conditions in Egypt and the Middle East. Specific projections for major cities include New York warming by 7.6 °F (similar to present-day Columbia, S.C.) and Chicago warming by 9.1 °F (similar to Montgomery, Ala.).

• Across 247 analyzed U.S. cities, the average projected summer warming by 2100 is 8 °F, with future conditions typically resembling locations 437 miles to the south.
• Sixteen U.S. cities are projected to reach summer temperatures by 2100 that have no equivalent on the North American continent, instead resembling locations in Egypt and the Middle East.
• Specific projections for the six largest U.S. cities by 2100 include: New York warming by 7.6 °F (analogue: Columbia, S.C.); Los Angeles by 5.8 °F (analogue: Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano, Mexico); Chicago by 9.1 °F (analogue: Montgomery, Ala.); Houston by 6.4 °F (analogue: Lahore, Pakistan); and Phoenix by 7.2 °F (analogue: Al Mubarraz, Saudi Arabia).
• Mitchell, S.D. is projected to experience the highest warming of the analyzed group, increasing by 11.1 °F by 2100, making it feel similar to Wichita Falls, Texas.
• The analysis utilizes the SSP3-7.0 high CO2 scenario from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and focuses exclusively on daytime summer high temperatures between June and August, excluding humidity.

APA

Trudeau, K. (2022). Shifting U.S. Cities. Climate Central. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-u-s-cities

Chicago

Trudeau, Kaitlyn. Shifting U.S. Cities. Climate Central, 2022. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-u-s-cities.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Trudeau |first1=Kaitlyn |title=Shifting U.S. Cities |publisher=Climate Central |date=13 July 2022 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-u-s-cities |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{trudeau2022shifting, author = {Trudeau, Kaitlyn}, title = {{Shifting U.S. Cities}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-u-s-cities}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }