ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a development forecast for Lesotho extending to 2043. It outlines a 'Current Path' based on existing policies and compares it against 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economics, poverty, health, and energy, highlighting Lesotho's heavy economic dependence on South Africa and its vulnerability to food insecurity and political instability.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Lesotho's GDP is projected to grow from US$3.5 billion in 2019 to US$7.6 billion by 2043, with growth rates exceeding 4% starting in 2035. However, the country is expected to remain among the five smallest lower middle-income economies in Africa by 2043.
• Lesotho is expected to benefit from a demographic dividend by 2030 in the Current Path forecast, with the labour force increasing from 977,000 people in 2019 to 1.3 million by 2043.
• Extreme poverty is an endemic issue, with a rate of 59.5% (1.2 million people) in 2019. The Current Path forecast predicts poverty will peak at 70.8% in 2025 before declining to 45.2% by 2043.
• Food insecurity is worsening due to stagnant domestic production and a growing population. By 2043, the Current Path forecast predicts agricultural demand will exceed production by 820,000 metric tons, resulting in a 63% import dependency.
• Lesotho has significant renewable energy potential, particularly in hydro, wind, and solar, but currently relies heavily on imports from South Africa and Mozambique. In the Current Path forecast, electricity access is projected to reach 66.7% (1.7 million people) by 2043.
• Life expectancy in Lesotho was 51.9 years in 2019, which is 14 years below the African average. The Current Path forecast projects an improvement to 60.2 years by 2043, though this remains 13.1 years below the average for lower middle-income countries in Africa.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is identified as having the largest positive impact on per capita income, potentially increasing GDP per capita to US$5,653 by 2043, which is US$413 above the Current Path forecast.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, could raise GDP per capita to US$7,375 by 2043 (US$2,135 above the Current Path) and reduce the poverty rate from 59.5% in 2019 to 27.7% in 2043.
• Carbon emissions in Lesotho were 700,000 tons in 2019 and are projected to increase to 1.2 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects a further increase to 1.4 million tons due to ambitious economic growth.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }