UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report concludes a modeling exercise of Uganda's development trajectories toward 2040, stating that the country will not reach middle-income status by 2040 on its current path. It outlines a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' that could see GDP per capita reach US$9,568 by 2045 and a significant reduction in extreme poverty, provided specific sectoral interventions in education, infrastructure, agriculture, and governance are implemented.

• Uganda is unlikely to achieve its goal of graduating to middle-income status by 2040 if it remains on its current development trajectory, despite progress in basic infrastructure, foreign capital attraction, and educational attainment.
• Under a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario', Uganda could reach a GDP per capita of US$9,568 by 2045 and reduce the extreme poverty rate from 41.3% in 2019 to 1.9% by 2040, which would lift 11 million more people out of poverty than the current path forecast.
• Uganda's population is projected to grow to 78.3 million by 2040. A potential demographic dividend could be realized by 2052 if strategic investments are made in education and health, though challenges such as youth unemployment and skills mismatches persist.
• The report recommends a full transition to renewable energies to mitigate environmental impacts and suggests investing in renewable energy sources to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and improve rural access to clean energy.
• To improve economic resilience and the trade balance, the report recommends the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on diversifying exports and increasing agricultural productivity.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026uganda, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }