UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report concludes that Uganda is unlikely to reach middle-income status by 2040 on its current path, but could significantly improve GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty through targeted interventions. Key recommendations focus on STEM education, rural infrastructure, climate-resilient agriculture, and a transition to renewable energies to support sustainable growth and the Vision 2040 goals.

• Uganda is not on track to reach its goal of middle-income status by 2040 based on its current development trajectory, necessitating more targeted socio-economic policy interventions.
• Implementing eight specific sectoral interventions could increase Uganda's GDP per capita to US$6,925, while a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' could see it reach US$9,568 by 2045 and reduce the extreme poverty rate from 41.3% in 2019 to 1.9% by 2040.
• Uganda's population is projected to grow to 78.3 million by 2040, with the possibility of a demographic dividend by 2052 if strategic investments in health and education are made.
• The report identifies critical needs for the energy and agricultural sectors, specifically the adoption of climate-resilient farming to reduce food insecurity and a full transition to renewable energies to mitigate environmental impacts.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026uganda, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{UGANDA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=UG&topic=04-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }