The Impact of Climate Change on Africa

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on Africa, detailing the frequency of climate-related disasters, the vulnerability of populations due to socio-economic factors, and the resulting threats to food security, health, and regional stability.

• Africa faces a high frequency of climate-related disasters, which now constitute nearly 70% of all natural disasters on the continent. Between 1984 and 2026, the continent experienced 1,865 such disasters, resulting in US$53 billion in direct financial losses and affecting approximately 702 million people. In 2024, 73 climate-related disasters occurred, with 40 attributed to flooding, impacting nearly 10 million people.
• Water-related disasters are the most significant climate threat to Africa, representing 82% of all climate-related incidents. This includes a precarious balance between floods and droughts. South-east Africa is particularly exposed to cyclones and storms, such as Cyclone Freddy in 2023 which affected Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar, and the 2022 floods in South Africa's KwaZulu province.
• Socio-economic vulnerabilities exacerbate the impact of climate change. Nearly 30% of the population lives in absolute poverty, and only 9% of direct climate-related disaster losses over the last four decades were insured. High inequality rates in Southern Africa, specifically in South Africa and Namibia, further increase exposure to hazards.
• Climate change is driving severe food insecurity and displacement in specific regions. The Horn of Africa experienced a historic drought, with 2023 estimates showing 12.15 million internally displaced people and nearly 60 million food insecure people. In the Sahel and West Africa, erratic rainfall and droughts are increasing the risk of desertification and population displacement as arable land diminishes.
• Climate change is altering the prevalence of diseases and increasing health risks. Rising temperatures and rainfall changes are shifting the prevalence of malaria, dengue, and measles. Water-borne diseases like cholera increased in Malawi and South Africa in early 2023. Additionally, heat-related deaths among the elderly in South Africa are projected to rise from a baseline of two deaths per 100,000 to between 20 and 50 deaths per 100,000 by 2050.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Impact of Climate Change on Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=02-impact

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Impact of Climate Change on Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=02-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Impact of Climate Change on Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=02-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026impact, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Impact of Climate Change on Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=02-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }