ISS African Futures

This report forecasts Zambia's development to 2043, predicting a GDP per capita increase to US$5,467 on the Current Path, though extreme poverty remains high at 67.3%. It highlights critical vulnerabilities in electricity access, secondary education, and food security, while identifying the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and 'leapfrogging' technologies as high-impact drivers for economic growth. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP per capita of US$8,244 and a significant reduction in extreme poverty to 42.1%.

• Zambia's population is forecast to grow from 17.86 million in 2019 to 32.70 million by 2043. The population is characterized as very young, with a median age of just over 17 years in 2019, expected to rise to just above 21 years by 2043.
• Under the Current Path forecast, Zambia's GDP per capita is expected to reach US$5,467 by 2043, a 35% increase from the 2019 value of US$4,036. The economy is heavily dependent on copper mining, which accounted for 14% of GDP and 70% of foreign currency earnings.
• Extreme poverty (using a US$3.20 threshold) was 74.4% (13.2 million people) in 2019. On the Current Path, this is forecast to decrease to 67.3% by 2043, though the absolute number of poor people is expected to rise to 22 million. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could reduce extreme poverty to 42.1% (12.6 million people) by 2043.
• Zambia's energy production is dominated by hydropower, which provided 90% (22 MBOE) of total energy production in 2019. Total energy production is forecast to increase from 24.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE) in 2019 to 91.5 MBOE by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are forecast to peak at 4.4 million tons in 2036 before declining to 2.5 million tons by 2043, driven by increased hydroelectricity capacity and reduced coal dependency. However, the Free Trade scenario would result in the highest emissions (3.77 million tons) by 2043 due to its larger impact on economic size.
• Zambia faces significant challenges in electricity access; only 34.5% of the population had access in 2019, with rural rates below 10%. The Current Path forecast predicts an increase to 57.4% by 2043, while a 'Leapfrogging' scenario could raise this to 69.3%.
• The agricultural sector is characterized by high malnutrition and food insecurity despite potential. In the Agriculture scenario, crop yields are forecast to improve to 6.5 tons per hectare by 2043, and irrigated land would increase to 442,000 hectares, compared to 157,000 hectares on the Current Path.
• Zambia's education system shows a stark divide between primary and secondary levels. While primary rates are high, lower and upper secondary enrolment rates in 2019 were 11 and 14 percentage points below the averages for lower middle-income African countries, respectively.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is identified as having the largest positive impact on GDP per capita, potentially reaching US$6,204 by 2043, which is 14% above the Current Path forecast.
• Zambia's life expectancy was 59.7 years in 2019, among the lowest in Africa due to the impact of HIV/AIDS. The Health/WaSH scenario is forecast to improve life expectancy by nearly one year over the Current Path by 2043.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }