Zambia Development Futures

The report projects that Zambia's GDP per capita will rise to US$5,467 by 2043 under the Current Path, though extreme poverty remains high at 67.3%. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and 'leapfrogging' through renewable energy and ICT as the most impactful drivers for economic growth. While carbon emissions are forecast to peak in 2036 and then decline due to increased hydroelectricity, the report highlights critical vulnerabilities in food security, secondary education, and rural electricity access.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Zambia's GDP per capita is expected to reach US$5,467 by 2043, representing a 35% increase from the 2019 value of US$4,036.
• Extreme poverty in Zambia is projected to remain severe; using the US$3.20 poverty line, the rate is forecast to decrease only modestly from 74.4% in 2019 to 67.3% by 2043 under the Current Path.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is the most significant driver of economic growth, potentially increasing 2043 GDP per capita to US$6,204, which is nearly 14% above the Current Path.
• Zambia's energy production is heavily reliant on hydropower, which provided 90% of the 24.2 MBOE produced in 2019. Total energy production is forecast to grow to 91.5 MBOE by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are expected to peak at 4.4 million tons in 2036 and then fall to 2.5 million tons by 2043, driven by a reduction in coal dependency and increased hydroelectricity capacity.
• Zambia faces significant food insecurity; the Current Path forecast indicates that by 2043, crop demand will exceed supply by 7.2 million metric tons.
• Electricity access is critically low in rural areas, where it was below 10% in 2019 and is only forecast to reach 22.2% by 2043 under the Current Path.
• The education system shows a stark divide between primary and secondary levels; in 2019, lower and upper secondary enrolment rates were 11 and 14 percentage points below the average for lower middle-income African countries.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral improvements, could increase 2043 GDP per capita to US$8,244 (a 51% increase over the Current Path) and lift an additional 9.4 million people out of extreme poverty.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Zambia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Zambia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Zambia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026zambia, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Zambia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }