Protest and Insecurity: Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The document identifies a substantial increase in protests in the Global South after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by food and energy insecurity. Analyzing ACLED data, the authors found food protests in 32 countries and fuel protests in 37 countries. While many protests are isolated, in some nations—such as Paraguay, Guatemala, and Peru—these grievances constituted a significant portion of all unrest events. The report argues that such protests serve as warnings of household hardship and can lead to severe political consequences, citing the flight of Sri Lanka's president as an example.

• Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Global South saw a substantial increase in protests that exceeded pre-invasion levels, while other types of violence remained largely stable.
• Between February 24 and May 13, 2022, food or fuel protests were identified in 48 states in the Global South; specifically, food protests occurred in 32 countries and fuel protests in 37, with 24 countries experiencing both.
• Fuel protests were particularly politically significant in eight countries where they represented more than 10% of all protests; this included Guatemala (48%), Peru (41%), Trinidad and Tobago (40%), Indonesia (21%), Panama (21%), and Honduras (20%).
• In Paraguay, fuel price grievances were highly prevalent, appearing in 65% of the 448 protests recorded between February 24 and May 13, 2022.
• The combination of economic and political grievances can lead to major political instability, as evidenced by mass protests in Sri Lanka that resulted in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing the country on July 13, 2022.
• Middle-income states in Asia and the Americas are identified as more vulnerable to these protests because they rely more on imported food and have transportation sectors sensitive to fuel price increases.

APA

Rudofsen, I., Rustad, S. A., & Marsh, N. (2022). Protest and Insecurity: Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/efdbb4c1-aa3e-4783-a7bf-a913a266535e/Marsh Rudolfsen Rustad - Protest and Insecurity Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Conflict Trends 3-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rudofsen, Ida, Siri Aas Rustad, and Nicholas Marsh. Protest and Insecurity: Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/efdbb4c1-aa3e-4783-a7bf-a913a266535e/Marsh Rudolfsen Rustad - Protest and Insecurity Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Conflict Trends 3-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rudofsen |first1=Ida |last2=Rustad |first2=Siri Aas |last3=Marsh |first3=Nicholas |title=Protest and Insecurity: Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=March 2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/efdbb4c1-aa3e-4783-a7bf-a913a266535e/Marsh Rudolfsen Rustad - Protest and Insecurity Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Conflict Trends 3-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rudofsen2022protest, author = {Rudofsen, Ida and Rustad, Siri Aas and Marsh, Nicholas}, title = {{Protest and Insecurity: Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/efdbb4c1-aa3e-4783-a7bf-a913a266535e/Marsh Rudolfsen Rustad - Protest and Insecurity Trends in the Global South since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Conflict Trends 3-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }