Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations

The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.

• There is a positive correlation between increasing domestic food prices and the risk of urban unrest in Africa.
• State repression of societal organizations, including CSOs and political parties, generally reduces the likelihood of urban unrest during food price spikes.
• The highest increase in the probability of urban unrest when food prices rise occurs in countries with moderate repression and barriers to organization, rather than in the most open societies.
• Severe repression of CSOs specifically reduces the predicted probability of urban unrest by 3.4 percentage points during food price increases.
• Societal organizations facilitate unrest by providing mobilization infrastructure and by 'politicizing' individual hardships through the creation of grievance frames.
• The study suggests an inverted-U relationship between regime type and conflict, where the highest risk of violence exists in states with insufficient repressive capacity to stop unrest but insufficient openness to provide conventional political channels.

APA

Rudolfsen, I. (n.d.). Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/8c2dd163-a27c-44d0-8714-e4aab4dae811/Food price increase and urban unrest The role of societal organizations.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rudolfsen, Ida. Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/8c2dd163-a27c-44d0-8714-e4aab4dae811/Food price increase and urban unrest The role of societal organizations.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rudolfsen |first1=Ida |title=Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/8c2dd163-a27c-44d0-8714-e4aab4dae811/Food price increase and urban unrest The role of societal organizations.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rudolfsenndfood, author = {Rudolfsen, Ida}, title = {{Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/8c2dd163-a27c-44d0-8714-e4aab4dae811/Food price increase and urban unrest The role of societal organizations.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }