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The research argues that democratization is more likely when opposition movements are led by urban groups—industrial workers and the middle class—who possess both the motivation to seek democratic policies and the organizational capacity to challenge regimes. Using a dataset of 193 campaigns across 147 countries, the authors find that movements dominated by industrial workers have a robust and significant positive effect on democratization. In contrast, movements dominated by peasants or military personnel are not conducive to democratization, and the evidence for middle-class-led campaigns is mixed, appearing more effective when limited to students and educated professionals or non-violent tactics.

The document presents a dataset of 3,375 urban social disturbance events, including both violent and non-violent political activities, compiled from the Keesing’s Record of World Events. It details the selection of 23 cities in Sub-Saharan Africa and 32 in Asia, the coding scheme used to categorize event types and casualties, and the challenges associated with using news reports as a primary data source. Analysis shows an increasing trend in both total and lethal events over time, with a higher average number of events reported for Asian cities compared to African cities.

The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.