{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["cross-sectional time-series analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'cross-sectional time-series analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=cross-sectional+time-series+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001860","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001860","title":"Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-07-19","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f06b30aa-4a58-4b2f-89da-7c74ec641b53/Who Revolts Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that democratization is more likely when opposition movements are led by urban groups—industrial workers and the middle class—who possess both the motivation to seek democratic policies and the organizational capacity to challenge regimes. Using a dataset of 193 campaigns across 147 countries, the authors find that movements dominated by industrial workers have a robust and significant positive effect on democratization. In contrast, movements dominated by peasants or military personnel are not conducive to democratization, and the evidence for middle-class-led campaigns is mixed, appearing more effective when limited to students and educated professionals or non-violent tactics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Opposition movements dominated by urban groups, specifically industrial workers or the urban middle classes, are more likely to result in democracy than movements led by other groups or situations where no organized mass opposition exists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The positive relationship between urban-led campaigns and democratization is more pronounced in societies with higher levels of urbanization and in more recent decades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among urban groups, campaigns dominated by industrial workers show a very robust and statistically significant link to democratization, whereas the evidence for middle-class-led campaigns is less consistent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Movements dominated by peasants or military personnel do not promote democratization and may even be followed by democratic backsliding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors posit that industrial workers are key agents of democratization because they combine the motivation for redistributive policies with high organizational capacity through unions and labor parties, and strategic leverage via strikes in vital economic sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Further analysis suggests that the democratizing effect of the middle class may be driven specifically by sub-groups such as students and educated professionals, and may depend on the use of non-violent tactics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001860#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","cross-sectional time-series analysis","comparative political sociology"]},{"id":"prio-001842","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001842","title":"Urban Social Disturbance in Africa and Asia","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2008","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/50dd7f7e-027b-4ae3-ae8a-2eb41c7dc788/Urdal 2008 Urban Social Disturbance in Africa and Asia PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents a dataset of 3,375 urban social disturbance events, including both violent and non-violent political activities, compiled from the Keesing’s Record of World Events. It details the selection of 23 cities in Sub-Saharan Africa and 32 in Asia, the coding scheme used to categorize event types and casualties, and the challenges associated with using news reports as a primary data source. Analysis shows an increasing trend in both total and lethal events over time, with a higher average number of events reported for Asian cities compared to African cities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The dataset records a total of 3,375 urban social disturbance events across 55 cities in 49 countries between 1960 and 2006, with 1,378 of these events involving lethal casualties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most common types of social disturbance identified in the dataset are organized demonstrations, followed by armed attacks and spontaneous riots.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Teheran, Iran, recorded the highest number of events (219), while Kabul, Afghanistan, and Karachi, Pakistan, showed high lethality rates of 65% and 62% respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a general increasing trend in both the total number of events and the number of lethal events from 1960 to 2006, though the author notes this may be influenced by a time bias resulting from better reporting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Asian cities had a higher average of reported social disturbance events (72) compared to Sub-Saharan African cities (46), and African events had a higher share of lethality (43%) than Asian events (33%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The use of news reports as a data source introduces potential biases, including censorship by autocratic regimes, the priorities of developed-world news consumers, and improvements in communications technology that may inflate reported trends.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant gaps exist in the available event data, with event location missing for 69.5% of cases and the number of participants missing for 59.2%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001842#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urbanization"],"geography_discussed":["India","Iran","Afghanistan","Pakistan","South Africa","Somalia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["dataset report","cross-sectional time-series analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001398","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001398","title":"Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/8c2dd163-a27c-44d0-8714-e4aab4dae811/Food price increase and urban unrest The role of societal organizations.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a positive correlation between increasing domestic food prices and the risk of urban unrest in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State repression of societal organizations, including CSOs and political parties, generally reduces the likelihood of urban unrest during food price spikes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The highest increase in the probability of urban unrest when food prices rise occurs in countries with moderate repression and barriers to organization, rather than in the most open societies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Severe repression of CSOs specifically reduces the predicted probability of urban unrest by 3.4 percentage points during food price increases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Societal organizations facilitate unrest by providing mobilization infrastructure and by 'politicizing' individual hardships through the creation of grievance frames.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study suggests an inverted-U relationship between regime type and conflict, where the highest risk of violence exists in states with insufficient repressive capacity to stop unrest but insufficient openness to provide conventional political channels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001398#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food price"],"geography_discussed":["Tunisia","Morocco","Ethiopia","Mauritania","Burkina Faso","Uganda","Egypt","Malawi","The Gambia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cross-sectional time-series analysis","quantitative research"]}]}