Os impactos ambientais da Ferrogrão: Uma avaliação ex-ante dos riscos de desmatamento

The policy brief estimates that the construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railway will induce the deforestation of 2,043 square kilometers of native vegetation in Mato Grosso if no mitigation measures are implemented. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tonnes of carbon, representing an environmental cost of approximately US$ 1.9 billion, which is about 60% of the project's estimated implementation cost of US$ 3.1 billion. The analysis uses a 'market access' approach to show how improved logistics for grain producers will increase demand for land, specifically affecting 38 municipalities.

• The construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railway is projected to induce the deforestation of 2,043 square kilometers of native vegetation in the state of Mato Grosso under a 'business-as-usual' scenario without mitigation.
• The projected deforestation will result in carbon emissions of 75 million tonnes, which, at a price of US$ 25 per tonne of carbon equivalent, equates to an environmental cost of nearly US$ 1.9 billion.
• The environmental cost associated with carbon emissions from deforestation represents approximately 60% of the railway's estimated total implementation cost of US$ 3.1 billion.
• The railway is expected to improve market access for 38 municipalities by an average of 8%, which incentivizes farmers and ranchers to expand production and increase demand for land.
• The deforestation estimate of 2,043 km² is considered conservative because the model may underestimate current export costs via the Miritituba port, ignore freight reductions in competing corridors (such as BR-163), and overlook potential population growth in benefited municipalities.
• The analysis establishes a 95% confidence interval for the induced deforestation between 1,671 square kilometers (US$ 1.55 billion in carbon costs) and 2,416 square kilometers (US$ 2.24 billion in carbon costs).

APA

Assunção, J., Bragança, A., & Araújo, R. (2020). Os impactos ambientais da Ferrogrão: Uma avaliação ex-ante dos riscos de desmatamento. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_Os-impactos-ambientais-da-Ferrograo-1.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Arthur Bragança, and Rafael Araújo. Os impactos ambientais da Ferrogrão: Uma avaliação ex-ante dos riscos de desmatamento. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_Os-impactos-ambientais-da-Ferrograo-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Bragança |first2=Arthur |last3=Araújo |first3=Rafael |title=Os impactos ambientais da Ferrogrão: Uma avaliação ex-ante dos riscos de desmatamento |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=March 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_Os-impactos-ambientais-da-Ferrograo-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2020impactos, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Bragança, Arthur and Araújo, Rafael}, title = {{Os impactos ambientais da Ferrogrão: Uma avaliação ex-ante dos riscos de desmatamento}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_Os-impactos-ambientais-da-Ferrograo-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }