The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and PUC-Rio evaluates the projected environmental risks of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad project in Brazil. Using a market access approach, the researchers estimate that the railroad will significantly increase deforestation in Mato Grosso by improving market access for farmers and ranchers, leading to substantial carbon emissions and associated social costs.

• The EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad is a greenfield project estimated to cost approximately US$3.1 billion. It will span around 1,000 kilometers, connecting Sinop in Mato Grosso to Itaituba in Pará, and is designed to create a new export corridor via the Miritituba fluvial port to increase the competitiveness of grain producers in Mato Grosso.
• Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario without mitigation, the railroad is projected to increase deforestation by 2,043 square kilometers in the state of Mato Grosso. This estimate is considered conservative as it does not account for potential population increases in benefited municipalities or the reduction of freights on competing logistical corridors like the BR-163.
• The projected deforestation is expected to release 75 million tons of carbon. Based on an average global carbon price of US$25 per ton, this results in an environmental cost of approximately US$1.9 billion, which represents about 60% of the railroad's implementation cost.
• The researchers identified 38 municipalities that will benefit from the railroad's construction through reduced transportation costs, which will lead to an average improvement of 8% in market access. These municipalities are the primary areas where environmental risk is concentrated and where mitigation efforts should be targeted.
• The study utilized a novel market access methodology to quantify the impact of infrastructure on land use. The model found that a 1% increase in market access leads to an approximately 0.33% increase in land used for farming activities in Legal Amazon municipalities.
• To prevent the logistics improvements of Ferrogrão from translating into increased deforestation, the brief recommends implementing mitigation measures such as the forest code, command and control efforts, and payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes.

APA

Assunção, J., Bragança, A., & Araújo, R. (2020). The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_The-Environmental-Impacts-of-the-Ferrograo-Railroad-1.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Arthur Bragança, and Rafael Araújo. The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_The-Environmental-Impacts-of-the-Ferrograo-Railroad-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Bragança |first2=Arthur |last3=Araújo |first3=Rafael |title=The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=March 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_The-Environmental-Impacts-of-the-Ferrograo-Railroad-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2020environmental, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Bragança, Arthur and Araújo, Rafael}, title = {{The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_The-Environmental-Impacts-of-the-Ferrograo-Railroad-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }