Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Data Set of Natural Resource Rents, 1970–1999

The study finds that energy wealth, but not mineral wealth, increases the risk of civil war onset, provided a lower threshold of 25 annual battle deaths is used. The results provide evidence against the 'looting rebels' model, which predicts a non-linear relationship where very high resource wealth eventually deters rebellion, and instead tentatively support state capacity models suggesting that fossil fuel dependence weakens state institutions.

• The study found no evidence of a non-linear or curvilinear relationship between natural resource rents and civil war onset, contradicting the 'looting rebels' model which suggests that very high resource wealth eventually enables governments to deter rebellion.
• Energy wealth is associated with an increased risk of civil war onset, whereas mineral wealth does not show a statistically significant effect.
• The significance of the link between energy wealth and civil war onset depends heavily on the definition of conflict; the relationship is evident when using a threshold of 25 annual battle deaths, but disappears when using a higher threshold of 1,000 battle deaths.
• The results tentatively support state capacity models, which argue that resource dependence—particularly oil—weakens state institutions and bureaucratic capacity, thereby increasing the risk of conflict.
• The authors argue that previous findings by Fearon and Laitin (2003) regarding oil exports and civil war onset are not robust when the sample is restricted to the post-1970 period.

APA

de Soysa, I., & Neumayer, E. (2005). Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Data Set of Natural Resource Rents, 1970–1999. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a679374e-2891-4cba-9ef9-95a102dbdf24/Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents 1970-1999.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

de Soysa, Indra, and Eric Neumayer. Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Data Set of Natural Resource Rents, 1970–1999. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2005. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a679374e-2891-4cba-9ef9-95a102dbdf24/Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents 1970-1999.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Soysa |first1=Indra |last2=Neumayer |first2=Eric |title=Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Data Set of Natural Resource Rents, 1970–1999 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2005 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a679374e-2891-4cba-9ef9-95a102dbdf24/Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents 1970-1999.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{desoysa2005resource, author = {de Soysa, Indra and Neumayer, Eric}, title = {{Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Data Set of Natural Resource Rents, 1970–1999}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2005}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a679374e-2891-4cba-9ef9-95a102dbdf24/Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents 1970-1999.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }