Desafios do Seguro Rural no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas

This policy brief examines the challenges of rural insurance in Brazil amidst climate change, using soybean production as a case study. It finds that while the insurance market has grown, it remains geographically concentrated in the South and Center-West, leaving high-production, high-risk areas like MATOPIBA underserved. Using machine learning, the authors identify precipitation, wind, and fire risk as primary drivers of losses. The report recommends expanding insurance coverage to vulnerable regions, utilizing yield data for pricing in areas with limited insurance history, and aligning government subsidies with sustainable agricultural practices.

• Climate change is increasing the frequency of adverse weather events in Brazil, such as prolonged droughts, hail, and frost, which has led to significant crop failures and a surge in insurance claims. In the 2021/2022 agricultural year, strong droughts caused insurance indemnities to increase more than fourfold compared to the previous harvest, resulting in indemnity costs that exceeded the premiums collected by insurers and reinsurers.
• Rural insurance in Brazil is characterized by high geographic concentration and a mismatch between production areas and insurance coverage. While the South region concentrates 60% of policies and 43% of premiums, it only accounts for 37% of the value of soybean produced (2006-2018). Conversely, the Center-West region accounts for 44% of the produced value but only 20% of the policies.
• The MATOPIBA region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia) shows a significant gap between its growing importance in soybean production and its insurance coverage. Despite producing approximately 14% of the national soybean value, the region has high production variability and limited access to insurance products, making it highly vulnerable to climate risks.
• Machine learning models (LASSO) reveal that precipitation, fire risk, and wind are the most relevant climate variables for explaining agricultural losses and insurance claims across Brazil. The models show that the impact of these variables is seasonal and varies by region; for example, variables are more critical in September and November for the South (planting period) and in March for the Center-West (harvest period).
• There is a data-driven barrier to expanding insurance in the North and Northeast regions. Models using insurance data perform poorly in these areas due to a low volume of policies (only 4% of total policies combined). However, when using average yield data from PAM/IBGE, the models can effectively explain losses in the Northeast, suggesting that the risk is predictable but the lack of insurance history hinders pricing and offer.
• The Brazilian reinsurance market is highly concentrated, which poses a risk to the solvency of insurers facing generalized losses. While IRB Brasil held 89% of premiums in the 2011/12 harvest, this dropped to 38% by 2021/22 as foreign companies increased their participation, helping to dilute risks globally.
• The document recommends several policy interventions: expanding insurance to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, using production and yield history (rather than just claim history) to price policies in uninsured areas, directing the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR) to under-served regions, and aligning insurance incentives with sustainable, low-carbon, and zero-deforestation practices.

APA

Souza, P., Oliveira, W., & Stussi, M. (2023). Desafios do Seguro Rural no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PB-Desafios-do-Seguros-Rural-1.pdf

Chicago

Souza, Priscila, Wagner Oliveira, and Mariana Stussi. Desafios do Seguro Rural no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PB-Desafios-do-Seguros-Rural-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Souza |first1=Priscila |last2=Oliveira |first2=Wagner |last3=Stussi |first3=Mariana |title=Desafios do Seguro Rural no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=April 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PB-Desafios-do-Seguros-Rural-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{souza2023desafios, author = {Souza, Priscila and Oliveira, Wagner and Stussi, Mariana}, title = {{Desafios do Seguro Rural no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PB-Desafios-do-Seguros-Rural-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }