The Forest Awakens: Amazon Regeneration and Policy Spillover

This research paper analyzes the growth of secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004 to 2014, investigating whether this regeneration was a result of policy spillovers from law enforcement targeting primary forest loss. The authors find that increased enforcement in a cell's neighborhood significantly increases the probability and area of forest regrowth within that cell, suggesting a deterrence mechanism where offenders abandon deforested land due to higher perceived risks.

• Secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon grew by more than 70% between 2004 and 2014, increasing from under 10 million hectares to over 17 million hectares.
• Environmental law enforcement targeting primary forest loss produced positive policy and spatial spillovers, where enforcement activity within 20km of a cell significantly impacted regeneration inside that cell.
• A one standard deviation increase in the intensity of neighborhood law enforcement is estimated to increase the probability of cell-level expansion in secondary vegetation by 11% of the sample mean and increase the actual area of secondary vegetation by 6% of the sample mean.
• The regeneration effect is driven by a deterrence mechanism, where stricter regional enforcement increases the perceived risk of illegal activity, leading offenders to abandon deforested land and allowing natural regrowth.
• The spillover effect of law enforcement on regeneration is most pronounced in areas with moderate levels of deforestation; it is less likely in areas with very high deforestation (where land use is consolidated) or very low deforestation (where there is little area available for regrowth).
• The expansion of secondary vegetation occurred primarily over former pasture areas; 33% of pasture in 2004 contained regeneration by 2014, while virtually 0% of cropland did.
• Counterfactual simulations suggest that improving the monitoring system to detect all deforestation patches recorded by the measuring system (PRODES) could increase secondary vegetation cover by nearly 300 thousand hectares in the benchmark sample.

APA

Assunção, J., Gandour, C., & Souza-Rodrigues, E. (2019). The Forest Awakens: Amazon Regeneration and Policy Spillover. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WP002-The-Forest-Awakens.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Clarissa Gandour, and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues. The Forest Awakens: Amazon Regeneration and Policy Spillover. Climate Policy Initiative, 2019. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WP002-The-Forest-Awakens.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Gandour |first2=Clarissa |last3=Souza-Rodrigues |first3=Eduardo |title=The Forest Awakens: Amazon Regeneration and Policy Spillover |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=October 2019 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WP002-The-Forest-Awakens.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2019forest, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Gandour, Clarissa and Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo}, title = {{The Forest Awakens: Amazon Regeneration and Policy Spillover}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2019}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WP002-The-Forest-Awakens.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }