Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil

This research paper evaluates the effectiveness of the Brazilian government's 'Priority Municipalities' (MPs) policy, implemented in 2008 to combat illegal deforestation in the Amazon. The authors find that blacklisting municipalities significantly reduced deforestation, primarily through intensified monitoring and law enforcement rather than economic sanctions. Crucially, the study concludes that this reduction in deforestation did not negatively impact agricultural production or credit concessions in the affected areas.

• The 'Priority Municipalities' (MPs) policy significantly reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Counterfactual analysis indicates that between 2008 and 2011, the policy avoided the clearing of 11,396 km2 of forest area, meaning observed deforestation was 35.1% lower than it would have been without the policy.
• The reduction in deforestation was primarily driven by the 'command and control' channel, specifically increased monitoring and law enforcement. When the number of fines applied by Ibama is adequately controlled for using an instrumental variable approach, the effect of the priority municipality status on deforestation disappears.
• The blacklisting of municipalities did not negatively affect agricultural economic indicators. The study found no significant impact on agricultural GDP, crop production, or rural credit concessions (including those for crops and livestock).
• The results suggest that environmental preservation and economic growth can occur simultaneously in the Amazon, as the policy's success in curbing deforestation did not create obstacles for agricultural production.
• The policy's effectiveness was concentrated in municipalities that were already high-pressure areas. In 2008, the initial thirty-six blacklisted municipalities accounted for 45% of the Amazonian deforestation from the previous year.
• The study highlights the role of the Real-Time Detection of Deforestation System (DETER), a satellite-based tool used to allocate law enforcement. However, DETER's inability to detect land cover beneath clouds creates exogenous variation in the number of fines issued, which the authors used as an instrument for their analysis.

APA

Assunção, J., & Rocha, R. (2014). Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, and Romero Rocha. Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil. Climate Policy Initiative, 2014. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Rocha |first2=Romero |title=Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=August 2014 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2014getting, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Rocha, Romero}, title = {{Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }