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The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.

The report demonstrates that deforestation in the Amazon, specifically within the Xingu River Basin, significantly reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual scenario where all Xingu Indigenous Territories are deforested predicts an average annual precipitation decrease of 7%, with more severe reductions during the dry season. These changes threaten agricultural productivity, urban water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation, with the center and north of the state being most vulnerable.

This report by CPI/PUC-Rio uses an atmospheric transport model to demonstrate that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual analysis of the total deforestation of indigenous territories in the Xingu River Basin suggests a 7% reduction in average annual precipitation, with more severe impacts during the dry season. The study highlights the critical role of protected forest areas in sustaining agricultural productivity, hydroelectric power generation, and urban water supplies.

The document assesses Brazil's use of protected territories to combat Amazon deforestation, finding that while these areas effectively shield the forests within their boundaries, they have a negligible impact on aggregate deforestation levels by deflecting clearing activities to unprotected regions.

The research finds that the blacklisting of priority municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon significantly reduced deforestation, avoiding the clearing of approximately 11,218 to 11,396 km2 of forest from 2008 to 2011. The authors conclude that this effect was primarily driven by intensified monitoring and law enforcement—specifically an increase in the number of fines—rather than economic sanctions. The study demonstrates that the policy had no significant negative impact on agricultural GDP, crop production, or rural credit concessions, suggesting that forest protection in the region does not necessarily constrain agricultural production.