Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso

This case study by the Climate Policy Initiative and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) uses an atmospheric transport model to analyze how deforestation in the Amazon Forest, specifically within the Xingu River Basin, reduces rainfall in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study demonstrates that forest cover is critical for maintaining humidity in air parcels, and its removal leads to significant decreases in precipitation that threaten agriculture, energy generation, and urban water supplies.

• Deforestation of the Xingu River region's Indigenous territories could result in an average decrease of 7% in the annual historical average precipitation for the state of Mato Grosso.
• The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Mato Grosso varies by season, with a potential 8% decrease in the wet season and a more severe 15% decrease during the dry season.
• The spatial distribution of rainfall reduction differs by season: the center and north of Mato Grosso are most affected during the wet season, while the center and northwest are most affected during the dry season.
• The study identifies specific economic vulnerabilities: the center of the state, which contains the most productive agricultural producers, is strongly affected in both seasons, and the north, home to the Teles Pires hydroelectric power plant, is heavily impacted during the wet season.
• The research utilizes a back trajectory atmospheric transport model to show that air parcels traveling over forest areas maintain more humidity than those over other terrains, meaning deforestation directly reduces the amount of rainfall delivered to continental lands.
• The authors note that their findings represent a lower bound effect of deforestation on rainfall because the model does not account for the synergies of climate change, deforestation in other regions, or the hydrological effects of deforestation on the Xingu River itself.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2021). Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/mapping-the-effect-of-deforestation-on-rainfall-a-case-study-from-the-state-of-mato-grosso/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso. 2021. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/mapping-the-effect-of-deforestation-on-rainfall-a-case-study-from-the-state-of-mato-grosso/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso |date=4 October 2021 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/mapping-the-effect-of-deforestation-on-rainfall-a-case-study-from-the-state-of-mato-grosso/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2021mapping, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/mapping-the-effect-of-deforestation-on-rainfall-a-case-study-from-the-state-of-mato-grosso/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }