{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["counterfactual analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'counterfactual analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=counterfactual+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"zca-000114","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000114","title":"Technical appendix for Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Appendix-Climate-extremes-in-the-UK-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers-2026-03.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The core model identifies two distinct rainfall-driven price pressures: drier conditions over a 6-month horizon push prices up (coefficient -0.00644, NW P = 0.006), while prolonged wet conditions over a 12-month horizon also increase prices (coefficient +0.00852, NW P = 0.010).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'pork falsification test' used as a negative control demonstrated that rainfall has no statistically significant predictive power for pork prices, confirming that the observed price increases in lamb are linked to the grass-fed supply chain rather than general economic trends.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The UK lamb market is largely self-contained, as the addition of the FAO global ovine meat price index to the model resulted in the index being non-significant (P = 0.50) and had negligible impact on rainfall coefficients.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the 2025 drought, using a counterfactual to isolate its effect from the preceding wet winter, found a mean drought premium of 92p/kg farmgate from March to October 2025, which equates to GBP 2.47 per household over that period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While there is no evidence that grass growth sensitivity to rainfall is worsening over time (P = 0.63), the hay market shows a significant rainfall x year interaction (P = 0.007), indicating that hay price responses to rainfall anomalies have strengthened.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["drought","extreme weather event","food price"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["econometric modeling","robustness testing","counterfactual analysis"]},{"id":"clipolin-000012","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000012","title":"Mapping the Effect of Deforestation on Rainfall: A Case Study from the State of Mato Grosso","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2021-10-04","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/mapping-the-effect-of-deforestation-on-rainfall-a-case-study-from-the-state-of-mato-grosso/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report demonstrates that deforestation in the Amazon, specifically within the Xingu River Basin, significantly reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual scenario where all Xingu Indigenous Territories are deforested predicts an average annual precipitation decrease of 7%, with more severe reductions during the dry season. These changes threaten agricultural productivity, urban water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation, with the center and north of the state being most vulnerable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Deforestation of the Xingu River region's Indigenous territories, which cover 140,000 km2, is estimated to cause an average decrease of 7% in the annual historical average precipitation for the state of Mato Grosso.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of deforestation on rainfall varies by season, with the dry season (May to August) experiencing a more pronounced decrease of up to 15% of the historical seasonal average, compared to up to 8% during the wet season (September to April).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geographic vulnerability to rainfall reduction is uneven across Mato Grosso: the center and north are most affected during the wet season, while the center and northwest are most affected during the dry season; the eastern part remains largely unaffected due to wind patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rainfall reductions from deforestation pose significant risks to critical economic infrastructure in Mato Grosso, specifically affecting agricultural productivity, urban water supplies, and the reservoirs of eight hydroelectric power plants, including the Teles Pires plant.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study utilizes an atmospheric transport model based on ERA5 wind data and MapBiomas land use data (1985-2018) to establish that air parcels traveling over forest areas maintain more humidity and deliver more rainfall than those over deforested terrain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The findings represent a lower bound of the actual effect of deforestation because the model does not account for the synergies of climate change, deforestation in other regions, or the hydrological effects of deforestation on the Xingu River itself.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000012#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","rain","hydroelectricity","agricultural productivity","water-supply management","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","Argentina","South America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","counterfactual analysis","empirical modeling"]},{"id":"clipolin-000802","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000802","title":"MAPEANDO O EFEITO DO DESMATAMENTO NAS CHUVAS UM ESTUDO DE CASO DO ESTADO DO MATO GROSSO","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"pt","date_published":"2021-10","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Rainfall-PT.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This report by CPI/PUC-Rio uses an atmospheric transport model to demonstrate that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual analysis of the total deforestation of indigenous territories in the Xingu River Basin suggests a 7% reduction in average annual precipitation, with more severe impacts during the dry season. The study highlights the critical role of protected forest areas in sustaining agricultural productivity, hydroelectric power generation, and urban water supplies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Deforestation in the Xingu River Basin region is estimated to reduce the historical average annual precipitation in the state of Mato Grosso by 7%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of deforestation on rainfall varies by season: the rainy season may see a reduction of up to 8% of the historical average, while the dry season could experience a reduction of up to 15%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geographic vulnerability to rainfall reduction differs by region and season: the center and north of the state are most affected during the rainy season, while the center and northwest are most affected during the dry season.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reduction in rainfall resulting from deforestation threatens key economic sectors in Mato Grosso, specifically agricultural productivity, urban water supply, and the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Atmospheric transport patterns show that the rainy season is characterized by winds moving from north to south (from the Amazon), whereas the dry season is characterized by east-to-west trajectories from outside the Amazon.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study notes that the Amazon forest's role in regulating rainfall extends beyond Brazil, affecting precipitation in Argentina and other South American countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000802#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","precipitation","hydroelectricity","agricultural productivity","water-supply management","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Xingu River Basin","Brazil","Argentina","South America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","counterfactual analysis","climate modeling"]},{"id":"clipolin-000756","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000756","title":"PROTECTED TERRITORIES, THOUGH CRITICAL, ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SLOW AMAZON DEFORESTATION","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020-05","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/PB-Protected-territories.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document assesses Brazil's use of protected territories to combat Amazon deforestation, finding that while these areas effectively shield the forests within their boundaries, they have a negligible impact on aggregate deforestation levels by deflecting clearing activities to unprotected regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Protected territories in Brazil, including national parks and indigenous lands, are effective at reducing deforestation within their specific boundaries, particularly in high-risk zones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite local success, landscape protection has a negligible effect on the total amount of deforestation across the Amazon, as it appears to shift deforestation to unprotected areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A counterfactual analysis from 2007 to 2014 indicates that the total deforested area would have been nearly the same without protected territories, with a difference of only 43,801 hectares, or 1% of the observed total.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2004 and 2014, Brazil significantly expanded its protection coverage under the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), with protected areas nearly doubling to 113 million hectares and indigenous lands increasing by 10 million hectares to 107 million hectares.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PPCDAm introduced a risk-based allocation strategy that targeted the 'Deforestation Arc'—a region within 750 kilometers of the Amazon's southeast border where over 90% of deforestation occurred during the plan's first decade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To effectively reduce overall deforestation, Brazil must combine the use of protected landscapes with broader, coordinated conservation policies to prevent the displacement of forest clearing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000756#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["empirical evaluation","counterfactual analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"clipolin-000559","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000559","title":"Getting Greener by Going Black: The Priority Municipalities in Brazil","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-08","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Getting-Greener-by-Going-Black-Technical-Paper.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research finds that the blacklisting of priority municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon significantly reduced deforestation, avoiding the clearing of approximately 11,218 to 11,396 km2 of forest from 2008 to 2011. The authors conclude that this effect was primarily driven by intensified monitoring and law enforcement—specifically an increase in the number of fines—rather than economic sanctions. The study demonstrates that the policy had no significant negative impact on agricultural GDP, crop production, or rural credit concessions, suggesting that forest protection in the region does not necessarily constrain agricultural production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Priority Municipalities (MPs) policy significantly reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, avoiding the clearing of 11,218 km2 of forest area from 2008 through 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reduction in deforestation was primarily driven by the monitoring and law enforcement channel, as the effect of the MPs policy disappears when controlling for the number of fines applied by Ibama.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000559#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","land use","agricultural production","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["Paraná","Paragominas"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal inference","counterfactual analysis","econometric modeling"]}]}