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The brief argues that Southern Africa can leverage geopolitical instability in the Middle East by establishing a 'Cape Corridor Assurance Framework'. This framework would integrate regional maritime coordination and national Vessel Traffic Services to provide risk bulletins and performance KPIs for insurers. Key recommendations include a 'Clean-Corridor Compliance Code' to deter shadow-fleet activity, protecting subsea cable infrastructure, and enhancing green-fuel bunkering at specific ports to ensure the route is visible, managed, and insurable.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser supply shock that threatens Nigerian food security by increasing agricultural production costs and food prices. Despite record domestic urea production in 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable due to the export of most urea and a continued reliance on imported blending materials from Russia, Morocco, and China. These external shocks compound existing internal strains, including regional insecurity and infrastructure gaps, disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers who cannot absorb rising costs. The document argues for a pivot toward emergency procurement, improved trade finance, and expanded domestic blending capacity to build long-term resilience.

The research highlights the reliance of rural communities in Zimbabwe's Mbire and Muzarabani districts on a mix of energy sources due to the unreliability of the national grid. While solar energy is common for lighting and electronics, firewood remains the most widespread cooking fuel, disproportionately impacting women and girls through labour and health risks. The study notes a preference for gas despite high costs and the adoption of 'tsotso stoves' as an energy-efficient, environmentally friendly alternative to open fires. It argues for inclusive benefit-sharing frameworks and investment in clean energy systems, particularly from extractive industries operating in the region.

The report documents systemic exploitation by Chinese-owned extractive companies in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited is found to be in flagrant violation of the Nigerian Labour Act and ILO Convention 98, employing a coercive labour regime with 12-hour shifts, no breaks, and a strict prohibition on unionisation. Hong Tai Quarry Company Limited is accused of failing to implement a 2021 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Gurku chiefdom, neglecting promised social investments and causing environmental degradation through blasting and dust pollution. Additionally, the report identifies economically imbalanced land lease agreements by Hong Tai Quarry that result in the economic dispossession of landowners through low, inflation-eroded compensation and a lack of environmental remediation clauses.

The essay examines the rise of Captain Ibrahim Traoré in Burkina Faso, analyzing the socio-political drivers of his popularity—such as the 'youth bulge', failure of previous civilian regimes, and the threat of violent religious extremism—against the actual outcomes of his rule. The author contends that military governance is fundamentally unsuitable for state administration and that under Traoré, Burkina Faso has seen a decline in security, a shrinking of civic space, and an increase in human rights violations. The text further questions the efficacy of shifting foreign alliances from France to Russia, noting that terrorism-related fatalities remain high despite the deployment of the Russian Africa Corps.

The report examines the systematic violence in Nigeria's North-Central region, specifically Benue and Plateau states, where armed herder militias have targeted farming communities. It attributes the persistence of this violence to state failure, operational deficiencies in security agencies, and a lack of political will to enforce laws like Benue's Open Grazing Prohibition and Ranches Establishment Law. The author highlights specific massacres in 2023 and 2025 as evidence of a campaign of forced displacement and killing. To resolve the crisis, the document recommends moving beyond symbolic presidential gestures toward technological surveillance, the establishment of state-level policing, a nationwide disarmament programme, and the prosecution of sponsors behind the attacks.

The document examines the consequences of the US aid freeze and the shutdown of USAID for Nigeria, specifically focusing on the risks to public health and poverty levels. Using International Futures (IFs) modelling, it predicts that the reduction in aid could push 700,000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030 and shrink the economy by US$237 million. The health sector is identified as the most vulnerable area, particularly the fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. The author argues that while the abrupt cut is harmful to the destitute, it serves as a necessary wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to increase domestic funding for essential services, noting that other bilateral donors are unlikely to fill the gap due to their own budget cuts for defence.

In February 2025, M23 rebels captured Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province in the eastern DRC, following the previous seizure of Goma. The document argues that Rwanda's support for M23 is driven by a combination of national security concerns—specifically the threat posed by the Democratic Forces of the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)—and economic interests related to minerals like gold, tin, and tantalum. It further notes that rivalry with Uganda and a perceived weakness in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have emboldened Rwanda's actions. Despite calls from the US, France, the UK, and China for Rwandan forces to withdraw, the international response remains tepid, with few concrete sanctions or aid cuts implemented.

The briefing argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions, professionalising the public service, and enhancing electoral accountability. It calls for a cohesive foreign policy to restore regional leadership within SADC and the AfCFTA, a decisive plan to combat corruption and gender-based violence, and the effective operationalisation of the Climate Change Act through local government reform and private-public partnerships.

The report argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions and accountability. It recommends a ten-point plan focusing on electoral reform, the professionalization of the public service, and the governance redesign of state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet. Regionally, it urges a more proactive role in SADC to defend electoral integrity and improve security mechanisms. On climate, it advocates for the operationalization of the Climate Change Act and a just energy transition through public-private partnerships.

The document asserts that Johannesburg's efforts to implement 4IR initiatives, such as its Smart City Strategy, are hindered by systemic governance weaknesses, including political instability and administrative inefficiency. It highlights specific urban challenges in transport, pedestrian safety, and waste management, proposing 4IR solutions like real-time data analytics and blockchain transparency. Drawing on a case study of Medellín, Colombia, the brief recommends shifting toward participatory budgeting, digital land registries, and integrated transport systems to ensure technological advancements reduce inequality and improve urban resilience.

The 2025 City Profiling Report for Cape Town describes a city with strong institutional governance and high service delivery standards relative to other SADC cities, yet one plagued by deep structural inequality and chronic traffic congestion. While the city maintains a clean audit record and high human development indices, it faces significant challenges in youth unemployment, informal settlement growth, and climate vulnerability, particularly regarding water scarcity and fire risk.

Dar es Salaam is one of Africa's fastest-growing cities and Tanzania's economic hub, though it faces significant challenges in infrastructure and governance. While the city's GDP is growing and it leads the country in startups and telecommunications, it is characterized by high levels of informality, with 70% of the population living in informal settlements. Public services such as water, sanitation, and waste management are underperforming, and the city is highly vulnerable to flooding and urban heat. Governance is heavily centralized, with local authorities relying on the national government for approximately 75% to 90% of their revenue, severely limiting their fiscal autonomy and ability to address local needs.

The Lilongwe City Profiling Report 2025 provides a comprehensive analysis of the capital city of Malawi, detailing its urban geography, governance, socio-economic status, and service delivery. The report highlights a city facing significant challenges including high poverty levels, limited infrastructure, and a governance structure where the local council has minimal de facto control over essential services like health and education, which remain managed by the central government.

The report compares 10 SADC cities, revealing stark disparities in economic wealth and infrastructure. While South African cities like Johannesburg and Cape Town are the wealthiest, they face high inequality and unemployment. Most other cities are characterized by high proportions of informal housing (60-86%) and a heavy reliance on national parastatals for engineered services. Sanitation remains the most critical service gap, with sewered sanitation being rare outside of South Africa and Zimbabwe. Local government finance varies wildly, with some cities relying heavily on national transfers while others, particularly in Zimbabwe, receive no transfers despite high service obligations.

The document assesses the pervasive role of the informal economy in Ethiopia, noting that it accounts for 80-90% of national employment and approximately one-third of GDP. It highlights a disconnect between official national surveys, which show a decline in informality, and international estimates that suggest the sector remains dominant. The analysis focuses on the drivers of informality—including rural-to-urban migration and structural exclusion—and the challenges of formalization, such as bureaucratic burdens and limited financial access. In Addis Ababa, the city administration has shifted from viewing informal trade as 'illegal' to implementing regulations (such as Regulation No. 184/2025) to recognize and gradually integrate street vendors into the formal economy.

The document analyzes the trajectory of institutional development in Ethiopia across imperial, military, and federal regimes. It finds that while formal structures like the civil service, parliament, and independent commissions have been established, they are frequently undermined by political control, lack of professional autonomy, and insufficient resources. The report highlights a persistent gap between liberal legal frameworks and the practical reality of state-led, top-down governance.

The Harare City Profiling Report 2025 details the challenges facing Zimbabwe's capital, characterized by rapid informal urban growth, severe infrastructure decay, and a strained relationship between the opposition-led city council and the national government. While Harare serves as the country's economic hub, it suffers from critical gaps in water, sanitation, and waste management, with a significant portion of the population living in informal settlements. The report highlights a severe fiscal crisis where the city relies almost entirely on its own limited revenue sources while facing low payment compliance and high levels of non-revenue water.

The report provides a comprehensive profile of Luanda, highlighting its rapid population growth, extreme economic inequality, and a highly centralised governance structure. While the city has benefited from oil wealth, significant service delivery gaps persist, particularly in housing, water, and sanitation for those in informal settlements. The report notes that Luanda is one of the most congested cities globally and faces increasing climate risks, including flooding and sea-level rise.

The Maputo metropolitan area, with a population of 2.9 million, serves as Mozambique's primary economic and political hub but faces significant challenges in service delivery and infrastructure. While the city shows economic growth and improving health indices, it is characterized by high levels of informal settlements, inadequate sanitation, and a fragmented local government system with limited functional autonomy. Key infrastructure projects like the Maputo-Katembe bridge have improved connectivity, but the region remains one of the poorest primary cities in the SADC region, with a heavy reliance on charcoal for cooking and a high prevalence of waterborne diseases among children.