A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

The document examines the consequences of the US aid freeze and the shutdown of USAID for Nigeria, specifically focusing on the risks to public health and poverty levels. Using International Futures (IFs) modelling, it predicts that the reduction in aid could push 700,000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030 and shrink the economy by US$237 million. The health sector is identified as the most vulnerable area, particularly the fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. The author argues that while the abrupt cut is harmful to the destitute, it serves as a necessary wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to increase domestic funding for essential services, noting that other bilateral donors are unlikely to fill the gap due to their own budget cuts for defence.

• Modelling from the International Futures (IFs) platform indicates that a 25 percent reduction in foreign aid inflows starting in 2025 could result in 253,000 more Nigerians falling below the US$3.65 extreme poverty line by next year, with an accumulated total of approximately 700,000 additional people in extreme poverty by 2030. Furthermore, Nigeria's economy in 2030 is projected to be US$237 million smaller than previous trajectories.
• The health sector is the most heavily impacted by the US aid freeze because it relies excessively on US funding, particularly for HIV/AIDS, maternal and child health, and family planning. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally most reliant on US funding for HIV medicines and is the third-largest program for the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has invested nearly US$8 billion in Nigeria since 2003.
• Other international donors are unlikely to compensate for the US funding gap. The UK has announced a 40 percent cut to its aid budget to increase defence spending, and France, Germany, and the Netherlands have also reduced their budgets. Additionally, multilateral organisations like the Global Fund and UNAIDS, which are heavily dependent on US funding, will likely be affected; the Global Fund has invested over US$4.8 billion in Nigeria since 2002.
• In response to the funding shortfall, Nigerian lawmakers approved an additional US$200 million for the health sector to provide vaccines and treatment for infectious diseases, though the author describes this as a 'drop in the ocean' relative to the actual needs.

APA

Bello-Schünemann, J. (2025). A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance. Good Governance Africa. https://digitalmallblobstorage.blob.core.windows.net/wp-content/2025/03/US-Aid-Freeze-PB.pdf

Chicago

Bello-Schünemann, Julia. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance. Good Governance Africa, 2025. https://digitalmallblobstorage.blob.core.windows.net/wp-content/2025/03/US-Aid-Freeze-PB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bello-Schünemann |first1=Julia |title=A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance |publisher=Good Governance Africa |date=March 2025 |url=https://digitalmallblobstorage.blob.core.windows.net/wp-content/2025/03/US-Aid-Freeze-PB.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{belloschnemann2025silver, author = {Bello-Schünemann, Julia}, title = {{A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance}}, institution = {Good Governance Africa}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://digitalmallblobstorage.blob.core.windows.net/wp-content/2025/03/US-Aid-Freeze-PB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }