Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the challenges faced by African raw commodity producers, specifically focusing on the lack of value addition in the cashew and cocoa sectors, regional agricultural growth forecasts through 2043, and a widening gap between local crop production and food demand.

• African agricultural producers struggle with a lack of value addition, exporting raw products with minimal benefit to farmers. For example, Africa produces 45% of global cashew nuts, but 90% are exported for processing elsewhere. The African Cashew Alliance suggests that increasing domestic processing by 25% could generate over US$100 million in household income. Similarly, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire produce 70% of global cocoa but capture only 5% to 6% of the estimated US$130bn annual market revenue.
• Efforts to improve cocoa pricing, such as the March 2018 Abidjan Declaration and the Living Income Differential (LID) initiative—which set a fixed premium of US$400 a ton over benchmark futures prices from October 2020—have faced significant obstacles. These include the COVID-19 pandemic, corruption, opposition from purchasing companies, environmental lobbyists, and competition from non-African producers in Brazil and Ecuador.
• Regional agricultural sector values vary across Africa, with West Africa being the largest. In 2019, West Africa's sector was valued at US$168 billion and is forecast to reach US$207 billion by 2043. North Africa followed at US$110 billion in 2019, with a forecast of US$127 billion by 2043. East Africa is forecast to reach US$96 billion by 2043, Southern Africa US$50 billion, and Central Africa US$41 billion.
• There is a projected gap between agricultural production and demand in Africa. While crop production is forecast to increase from 1,007 million metric tons in 2019 to 1,473 million metric tons by 2043, demand is expected to rise more sharply from 1,125 million metric tons in 2019 to 2,126 million metric tons by 2043. Consequently, the agricultural import bill is forecast to rise from US$114 billion in 2019 to US$510 billion by 2043, with food imports increasing from 174 million metric tons to 754 million metric tons.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }