Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers

The report highlights the economic disparity for African producers of raw commodities like cocoa and cashew nuts, who export most products without value addition. It details regional agricultural growth forecasts and warns of a widening gap between crop production and demand, which is expected to increase food imports and vulnerability to international price fluctuations by 2043.

• African agricultural producers of raw commodities suffer from a lack of value addition, leading to low returns. For example, Africa produces 45% of global cashew nuts, but 90% are exported for processing overseas, providing little benefit to 2.5 million farmers. Similarly, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire produce 70% of global cocoa but capture only 5% to 6% of a market valued at US$130bn annually.
• Efforts to improve pricing for cocoa farmers, such as the Living Income Differential (LID) and the Côte d’Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative (CIGCI), have faced implementation challenges. The CIGCI introduced a fixed premium of US$400 a ton over benchmark futures prices in October 2020, but the LID has struggled due to corruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, opposition from purchasing companies, environmental lobbyists, and lack of production regulation.
• Agricultural sector values vary by region, with West Africa being the largest at US$168 billion in 2019 and projected to reach US$207 billion by 2043. North Africa followed with US$110 billion in 2019, projected to reach US$127 billion by 2043. Other regions include East Africa (forecasted US$96 billion by 2043), Southern Africa (forecasted US$50 billion by 2043), and Central Africa (forecasted US$41 billion by 2043).
• There is a projected gap between agricultural production and demand in Africa. While crop production is forecast to increase from 1,007 million metric tons in 2019 to 1,473 million metric tons by 2043, demand is expected to rise more sharply to 2,126 million metric tons by 2043. This is expected to drive the agricultural import bill from US$114 billion in 2019 to US$510 billion by 2043.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Agriculture The challenge faced by raw commodity producers}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=04-agriculture&topic=04-challenge-faced-by-raw-commodity-producers}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }