Impact of the Gender Scenario

This research paper analyzes the potential economic and social impacts of reducing gender gaps in education and labor force participation across Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender scenario' against a 'Current Path' forecast, finding that aggressive reductions in gender inequality would significantly increase GDP, raise GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty, and improve child health and human development indices across the continent.

• Reducing gender gaps in education and labor force participation would increase Africa's GDP by 2043. An aggressive reduction in education gaps would add approximately US$39.2 billion (0.5% increase), while a similar reduction in labor force participation gaps would add US$148.2 billion (1.8% increase) compared to the Current Path forecast.
• In the Gender scenario, the total African economy in 2043 is projected to be US$259 billion (3.3%) larger than the Current Path forecast. Regional gains are most significant in West Africa (US$90 billion or 3.3%) and North Africa (US$89 billion or 4.6%), with Egypt and Nigeria seeing the highest gains at the country level.
• The service sector is the primary beneficiary of reduced gender inequalities, with a forecast increase of US$174 billion (4%) by 2043. The manufacturing sector would increase by US$56 billion (3%). While agriculture initially sees gains until 2030, it later declines as women move into other sectors, particularly services.
• Africa's GDP per capita (PPP) in 2043 is forecast to reach US$7,434 in the Gender scenario, which is US$355 (5%) higher than the Current Path forecast of US$7,079. North Africa would see the largest absolute increase in GDP per capita at US$750.
• The Gender scenario could significantly reduce extreme poverty (defined as US$1.90). It is estimated that 10 million Africans could be lifted out of extreme poverty by 2030, and 53 million by 2043. Nigeria would see the largest absolute reduction with 12 million fewer poor people by 2043.
• Reducing gender inequalities is projected to improve child health by reducing the number of stunted children in Africa to 35 million by 2043, which is 6 million fewer than the 41 million projected under the Current Path.
• The Gender scenario improves the Human Development Index (HDI) for all African countries, with the most significant percentage improvements in Chad and Niger. The overall gender gap in the HDS in Africa is forecast to be 4% in 2043, compared to 6% in the Current Path.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of the Gender Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Impact of the Gender Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Impact of the Gender Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026impact, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of the Gender Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }