Impact of the Gender Scenario

The research finds that an aggressive reduction in gender inequality would significantly increase Africa's GDP, GDP per capita, and human development indices by 2043. The most substantial economic gains are projected in the service sector and in regions with currently high gender gaps, such as North and West Africa. Socially, the Gender scenario is forecast to lift millions out of extreme poverty and reduce the number of stunted children by 6 million compared to the Current Path.

• Reducing gender gaps in education and labour force participation would increase Africa's GDP by 2043. Specifically, reducing the education gap would add approximately US$39.2 billion (0.5% increase), while reducing the labour force participation gap would add US$148.2 billion (1.8% increase) compared to the Current Path forecast.
• In the Gender scenario, the total African economy in 2043 is projected to be US$259 billion (3.3%) larger than the Current Path forecast. The most significant absolute GDP gains are expected in West Africa (US$90 billion) and North Africa (US$89 billion).
• The service sector is the primary beneficiary of reduced gender inequalities, with a projected increase of US$174 billion (4%) by 2043. The manufacturing sector is also expected to grow by US$56 billion (3%). Conversely, the agriculture sector's value added is forecast to decline below the Current Path after 2030 as women move into other sectors.
• Africa's GDP per capita (PPP) in 2043 is forecast to reach US$7,434 under the Gender scenario, which is a 5% increase (US$355) over the Current Path forecast of US$7,079. North Africa would see the highest absolute increase in GDP per capita at US$750.
• The Gender scenario could significantly reduce extreme poverty (defined as US$1.90), lifting approximately 10 million Africans out of poverty by 2030 and 53 million by 2043. Nigeria is projected to see the largest absolute reduction, with 12 million fewer poor people by 2043.
• Gender equality improvements are forecast to reduce the number of stunted children in Africa to 35 million by 2043, which is 6 million fewer than the 41 million projected under the Current Path.
• The Gender scenario is expected to improve the Human Development Index (HDI) across all African countries, with the most significant percentage improvements in Chad and Niger. The overall gender gap in the HDI for Africa is forecast to decrease from 6% in the Current Path to 4% in the Gender scenario by 2043.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of the Gender Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Impact of the Gender Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Impact of the Gender Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026impact, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of the Gender Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=09-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }